Ain’t No Sunshine

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How about the song by Brother Bill Withers?

“Ain’t no sunshine when she’s gone.
It’s not warm when she’s away.
Ain’t no sunshine when she’s gone
And she’s always gone too long anytime she goes away.”

WATERLOGGED: Seems like rain totals in the 2 to 4 inch range have been common this morning across Alabama. The total at our SKYCAM site in downtown Birmingham is 2.85″… radar data suggests amounts to 5 inches over parts of Tallapoosa and Chambers Counties in East Alabama. Rain is still falling right now along and south of a line from Fayette to Cullman to Scottsboro, and the NWS in Birmingham maintains a flash flood watch for most of Central Alabama.

THE DAYS AHEAD: The idea of a drier day tomorrow is fading. Our warm front to the south will be in this part of the world, and occasional showers now seem likely tonight and tomorrow. Rain will increase tomorrow night and Wednesday, and the risk of strong to severe storms is still on the table for Thursday. SPC does not have any formal risk areas defined right now with some model madness concerning details of surface feature placement, along with instability and shear. The greatest concern will be for additional flash flooding.

The NAM is printing an additional 1.32″ of rain for Birmingham during the next 84 hours, while the GFS is much wetter, and probably closer to the truth,. with 2.32″. The models are having a hard time with this anomalous pattern for October, and I would not surprised to see additional rain totals of 5 inches between now and Thursday night.

RIVER FLOODING: The NWS has issued a flood warning for the Cahaba River in the Birmingham metro; the river is expected to crest about 2 feet above flood stage in the Cahaba Heights area tomorrow morning; this will cause some minor flooding problems. Minor flooding is also forecast along the Tombigbee River in West Alabama, but remember additional rain is coming and more problems could develop in coming days.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The coolest air so far this season will invade Alabama during these three days. Friday will be a raw day with lingering clouds, some drizzle, and temperatures in the 50s along with a chilly north wind. Saturday will feature a clearing sky, but we might have a hard time getting out of the mid 50s as cold air advection continues. The GFS is printing mid 40s both Saturday and Sunday morning, but we figure we will be around 40 degrees here at daybreak Sunday, with potential for mid to upper 30s and some scattered light frost for the colder valleys across North Alabama. The good news is that the weekend will be dry.

NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues with a warming trend on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Some hint rain could return toward the end of the week.

TROPICS: All remains quiet across the vast Atlantic basin.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record this week’s show tonight; it will be posted by 11:00 or so.

I enjoyed spending some time today on the campus of the University of Montevallo, and also seeing the first graders at Holt Elementary School in Tuscaloosa County; be looking for those kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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