More Fast Paced Weather Changes

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RIGHT NOW: Moist air continues to surge northward across Alabama this afternoon; the dewpoint in Birmingham is up to 67, with a dewpoint of 71 at Montgomery. A few scattered showers are in progress this afternoon, and we expect a more organized band of showers and storms in here late tonight.

The good news is that we have seen very few breaks in the overcast across this part of the state, keeping temperatures in the mid 70s, and accordingly there is very little surface based instability. Accordingly, SPC has dropped the severe weather for Northwest Alabama tonight. Seems like our main window for the organized showers and storms will come from about midnight tonight through 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. Rain totals of 1/2 inch are likely, with isolated amounts to one inch.

TOMORROW: The rain should be out of the state by mid-morning, and we expect the sky to become partly sunny by afternoon as drier air slips into the state from the north.

THURSDAY: Summer-like warmth is the story as an upper air ridge builds in from the south; most MOS products are showing highs in the 82 to 85 degree range for Birmingham with a partly sunny sky. I guess a shower could pop up somewhere Thursday afternoon, but most of the day should be dry.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Clouds will increase Friday in advance of a deep long wave trough and surface front. Showers are possible by Friday afternoon, with widespread showers and storms likely Friday night. Rain is a threat for Friday night’s high school football games, and some thunder and lightning is very possible.

The weekend forecast is very difficult. Our front will stall out somewhere over Central Alabama, and exactly where that happens will determine our weather. The 12Z GFS is farther north; putting the boundary close to I-59. If this is correct, then rain is likely Saturday for Gadsden, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and points south. By Sunday, the front is closer to Montgomery, and it looks like most of the rain Sunday will be over the southern half of Alabama. Confidence in any specific forecast is rather low right now… we should have more clarity by tomorrow.

NEXT WEEK: The front will drift north Monday as a warm front, meaning a mostly cloudy day with some risk of showers. Drier air tries to slip in by mid-week, but again, forecast confidence remains low.

TROPICAL UPDATE: NHC tells us they are going to upgrade the wave east of the Leeward Islands to Tropical Storm Henri this afternoon; it will slow down as steering currents collapse in coming days, hanging around the area north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Due to strong winds aloft, Henri is not expected to become a major system, and doesn’t seem to be in a position to threaten the U.S. mainland.

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