Strong Storms Possible Tonight

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LOTS OF CHANGES: Once again, keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor events planned through the weekend as we are dealing with a very fast paced pattern with lots of changes in the days ahead.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: This morning we are waking to low clouds, fog, and drizzle ahead of a warm front down over South Alabama. We figure that will move north of here by afternoon, so we have a chance the sun might break out a bit this afternoon, pushing temperatures well into the 70s. While an afternoon shower is possible, the best chance of showers and storms will come tonight ahead of a surface front. SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch this morning for the area roughly from Wichita Falls, Texas to Sallisaw, Oklahoma as the initial storms are forming just north of the Red River.

SPC has a slight of severe weather now expanded into Northwest Alabama, which seems very reasonable with surface based CAPE values expected to exceed 1,500 j/kg in the warm sector (south of the warm front), along with favorable forecast hodographs, suggesting even some risk of isolated tornados in the area from Greenville, Mississippi to Huntsville. So, we will be watching the radar carefully; the best chance of any strong to severe storms will be from about 5:00 p.m. until 11:00 p.m.

TOMORROW: It now appears that showers and storms will end early in the day, maybe even before sunrise, and the sky should become partly sunny as drier air filters into the state. Bottom line is that it could turn out to be a pretty decent day with a high in the low to mid 70s.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A strong upper ridge noses in here from the south on Thursday; the day looks warm and dry with a good supply of sunshine along with a high in the low to mid 80s. It will feel more like summer. Then, on Friday, we will introduce the chance of an afternoon shower or storm ahead of a deep upper trough and surface front. Then, an organized round of showers and storms is likely Friday night. A few strong storms are also possible Friday night, with potential for one inch of rain for most of Alabama. You, most likely, will need rain gear for the high school football games Friday night, and there is a chance that lightning could mean some game delays.

THE WEEKEND: All of a sudden the 00Z GFS pushes the surface front all the way down to Montgomery by midday Saturday, and if that solution is correct then the rain could end early in the day Saturday, and the sky could become partly sunny by Saturday afternoon. The front remains over South Alabama Sunday, keeping us in dry air. If the 12Z GFS run keeps this up, we will pretty much change the tune of our weekend forecast to a much drier scenario… so stay tuned.

NEXT WEEK: Some of the very cold air over the northern U.S. will try to slip in here early next week; but the upper air winds will keep most of it to the north. There is a reasonable chance the first half of the week will be rain-free with cool nights.

TROPICS: Still a little baffled why NHC upgraded the North Atlantic storm to Tropical Storm Grace over the weekend; they have pulled the advisories and it is simply a cold core sub-tropical system far out to sea. Elsewhere, a tropical wave about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has some chance of becoming a tropical depression today, but it will encounter strong winds aloft soon, and it is not expected to become a major system.

GULF SHORES NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Their big event is this weekend; always a huge crowd on the Alabama Gulf Coast for this one. Unfortunately the weather looks unsettled as they will be south of the stalled front; while most of the day Thursday and Friday will be warm and dry, a few showers and storms are likely both Saturday and Sunday. The high will be in the low 80s.

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