Changeable Weather Ahead

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PLENTY OF CHANGES: Again we have a tricky and challenging forecast for the next 7 days. Let’s take it all one day at a time…

RIGHT NOW: Clouds, but no rain over the northern half of Alabama. The big mass of rain that soaked the state last night is well to the east, and the warm front is still to the south. Birmingham at 2:00 is reporting 64, while south of the warm front Mobile is at 83 with some sunshine breaking through the clouds. The weather should remain generally dry here through tonight, but the clouds will linger.

TOMORROW: The warm front should move north of here, meaning a warmer day with a high well into the 70s, perhaps reaching 80 degrees in a few spots. A few scattered showers or storms could form tomorrow afternoon as the air becomes unstable, but widespread rain is not expected. There should be a few intervals of sun during the day. Rain will arrive late tomorrow night, however, as a front approaches.

WEDNESDAY: Looks like we will begin the day with showers, and possibly a thunderstorm as the surface front moves through. However, it looks like the rain will be over by mid to late morning, with some potential for a little sunshine Wednesday afternoon. The high Wednesday should be in the 72 to 75 degree range.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Summer-like warmth is the story on these days, with highs up into the low to mid 80s. Thursday looks dry, but showers and storms could begin to form by Friday afternoon and Friday night as an upper trough/surface cold front combo nears Alabama.

THE WEEKEND: Showers and storms are likely Saturday, and the surface front should stall out somewhere near I-59. This should keep the weather wet at times into Saturday night and Sunday, so we will have to dodge raindrops at times over the weekend. Highs both days should be in the low to mid 70s.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: It will be very interesting to watch the battle between very cold air over the northern third of the nation, and the warm sub-tropical ridge over Florida. Expect more rapid fire changes through mid-month; we won’t even try to time out specific events beyond seven days in this pattern.

TROPICS: Grace sure doesn’t look like a tropical storm up in the Northeast Atlantic; I am sure NHC will drop the advisories this afternoon as it becomes a cold core North Atlantic storm. Elsewhere, the wave in the middle of the Atlantic seems to be better organized, and has some potential to become a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow. But, harsh upper air winds in a day or two will most likely prevent this one from becoming a significant system. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics.

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I enjoyed spending some time today up at Ruffner Mountain with some 7th graders on a field trip; I will post some pictures later this evening. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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