A Few Showers Around

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MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES: How about that weather in East Alabama… at 2:00 Gadsden reports 72 degrees, while Anniston is at 73. The sky is mostly cloudy, and we continue to see a few showers on radar, most numerous east of I-65. This is what an easterly flow can do, and I pretty much expect the same thing tomorrow. Much of East Alabama will have a hard time getting out of the 70s, with low 80s elsewhere. And, again, the risk of some scattered light rain.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: I am not really comfortable leaving rain out of the forecast during this four day period, but at the same time I don’t think it rains all that much. I think a risk of widely scattered showers is appropriate with a rather moist airmass hanging around, and some evidence of a weak inverted surface trough. Temperatures will remain below average, with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. I still do not think rain will be a big problem for high school or college football games this weekend. Just keep in mind a shower or two might show up in a few spots from time to time.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS is more aggressive with moisture return early next week, and hints at a better chance of some rain at times on Monday and Tuesday, and we will probably lean that way in our forecast.

TROPICS: Hurricane Jimena is beginning to weaken as it approaches the Baja peninsula of Mexico; sustained winds are down to 135 mph, but it should remain a category three hurricane at the time of landfall tomorrow morning on the west side of Baja. The moisture from Jimena seems to be headed for Arizona this weekend.

In the Atlantic, a hurricane hunter is in the vicinity of the wave that is almost stationary northeast of the Leeward Islands; we will know shortly if we have Tropical Storm Erika. Dynamic models continue to move this system northwest, and it seems to be in a position to recurve before reaching the East Coast of the U.S. But, with weak steering currents, that is not a certainty, and we will keep an eye on it.

And, in the East Atlantic, a tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa; this one is a higher latitude system that most likely will recurve into the open Atlantic.

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