Rain At Times Today

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SOGGY FRIDAY: The upper level low this morning is near Fort Walton Beach, Florida, and moisture continues to wrap into Alabama from the east. As I write this a large mass of rain covers East Alabama, and that will be moving westward during the morning. So, needless to say we will need to highlight periods of rain today with a cloudy sky and temperatures struggling to get out of the 70s this morning. As the ULL moves away tonight, we figure the rain will diminish, and there is a reasonable chance that a number of high school stadiums will be dry by kickoff tonight. Still, take the rain gear since showers will still be around. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s at kickoff, and the fields will be soggy from today’s rain.

THE WEEKEND: The GFS has come in drier tomorrow, but I think we will still need to mention at least a chance of scattered showers and storms with a moist airmass staying in place. And, the models are slower with the surface cold front Sunday, and if the 12Z run confirms this trend, we will need to hang on to a chance of showers or storms much of the day Sunday, although the northern third of the state (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) should be dry by afternoon one way or another.

NEXT WEEK: Cooler air drier air arrives Monday, and we still expect lows down in the 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The GFS is printing a high of only 79 Monday, and temperatures will remain below average for much of the week with only a slow warming trend. The week looks mostly rain-free at this point.

DANNY: Tropical Storm Danny is struggling in the Atlantic east of Florida. Sustained winds are only 40 mph, and it seems like harsh winds aloft are preventing it from becoming a hurricane. The storm will sideswipe the upper Atlantic coast over the weekend, but with the strongest winds east of the center, it shouldn’t cause too many problems.

ERIKA? The strong tropical wave in the East Atlantic could be Hurricane Erika by Monday. Most models suggest the ridge north of the system will not be especially strong, allowing a northwest movement over the next 5 days. If this is correct, this will not be a storm that threatens the Caribbean or the Gulf; it could be a system with a similar track to Danny or Bill, recurving in the Atlantic off the East Coast of the U.S., or perhaps making a run at the coast. Just too early to call for now… we will keep an eye on it.

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I am speaking today at Carrolls Creek Baptist Church in Northport… I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 today. Enjoy the day!

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