Interesting Weather Challenges

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The weather may soon drop into the summer doldrums with a pattern of heat and daily shower chances, but for the next three days, we have some challenges to making a good forecast.

The upper trough that brought us some unusually cool weather for July has moved east of Alabama with the main trough axis over the East Coast. The main ridge is back over the Southwest US. So for the next couple of days with an emphasis on late Wednesday and Thursday we will remain between the two with a northwesterly flow pattern. This means we will need to keep our eyes to the northwest for the possibility of any large thunderstorm clusters which might form and travel long distances to affect us.

Both SPC and the QPF branch focus on these mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) for severe weather possibilities and the greatest rainfall potential. For us, the big question will be whether or not a cluster will travel far enough to affect us in Central Alabama. I think the clouds from an MCS will certainly knock the heat down a tad Thursday, and I hope we do get some additional rain out of the situation.

After Thursday, the western ridge slides a bit eastward while the Bermuda high builds in across the Southeast placing us under a strong ridge. But with a moist air mass under that ridge, there will be daily scattered showers along with the heat. I still think the GFS MOS guidance may be under doing the heat with forecasted highs only in the lower 90s. I am inclined to think more mid and upper 90s for highs reminding us that it is August and summer!

That pattern of the upper ridge in place over the Southeast remains well into voodoo country with only slight variations in the strength of the ridge.

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Thanks for viewing the Blog. I hope you have a great day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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