Storms Then a Bit Less Hot

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Okay, okay, I just could not bring myself to say “cooler” in the title of today’s Blog post. But from the mid and upper 90s to just 90 is cooler – or as the title says – a bit less hot. Plus the humidity will be down a tad, too, both factors helping Monday and Tuesday to feel a little nicer.

There are two main players in the upcoming changes. First is a cold front poised off to the northwest that should traverse Central Alabama this afternoon and tonight. The front will bring the possibility of scattered storms, some of which might be strong to severe with the main threat being damaging wind. Marginally severe hail – probably not much larger than 1 inch – could accompany some of the storms, but the atmosphere is fairly warm. The mid-level lapse rate or temperature change is not very impressive, however, we have a abundance of low level moisture as seen from lower 70 dew points plus the afternoon heating combined with the focusing effect of the weak front. That together with a closed low located over the Great Lakes should help to bring a slight change to our weather.

The closed low will set up just to our east, so we will be on the back side of the trough axis. This puts us under a northwesterly flow, so we will need to keep an eye on any impulses moving through that flow for the development of thunderstorm clusters. That is not likely to occur until mid or late week.

With the trough axis east of us we should stay essentially dry after midday Monday. The closed low begins to weaken and move slightly further east at the end of the week so moisture will return as humidity levels climb again. However, I really do not expect to see anything more than scattered showers primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Tropics are still quiet outside of the cloud mass in the northwest Caribbean. It does not look very good on satellite and water temperatures are cool compared to the southern Gulf. It still will bear watching as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and comes out into the southern Gulf early next week.

Voodoo country features the appearance of the 594 contour as the ridge builds back strongly into the Southeast US. Fortunately, that heat bubble does not stay long and migrates westward opening the way for a flatter ridge for us. But after all, it is July!! Or will be then!

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Really enjoying Cheaha again. My wife and I have been volunteering, and it sure feels good to do something for someone else. However, I have to admit that I am not happy to see the amount of litter that people can drop when visiting Cheaha. We made a trip around the top section yesterday, and I was amazed to get a 5 gallon bucket of trash.

I hope you have a great day. Perhaps you will be one of the lucky ones to get some rain. My new grass is doing well, but after 12 days without rain, I would like to get one of those showers today. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate information on past hailstorms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. We work primarily for people involved in insurance cases and for attorneys. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

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