Weather Goes to Unsettled

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Our weather got a bit unsettled yesterday as that complex of thunderstorms across West Tennessee helped to focus development that produced storms that gave the northern sections of Alabama some rain along with lightning and thunder. It appears that the frontal zone and the focus for storm development will sag into the area and stay with us for the next few days keeping our weather somewhat unsettled. It should be primarily diurnal events, but some of the boundaries and weak upper disturbance may produce longer lasting spots of thunderstorms as we see this morning.

With all the various boundaries out there and a very humid air mass, showers can develop just about anywhere, so we all have some chance at seeing rain. Just be careful since the lightning danger will be raising it’s ugly head and we don’t want any statistics from these storms.

There is a risk that some of the storms may be severe for the next couple of days. I think the main risk will be damaging wind and possibly hail. Rainfall amounts will vary widely but some of the stronger storms could produce locally heavy rain. I noted that the sounding from the Shelby County Airport last night showed precipitable water amounts above 1.5 inches. Since our ground is still fairly wet, local flash flooding could occur in some of the stronger storms.

By Monday and Tuesday of next week, the ridge builds much stronger to our west and gradually advances over us. This should have the effect of reducing the likelihood of showers and storms though without an air mass change isolated afternoon storms could stick with us.

Not much change happens into voodoo country until the latter periods when a trough is forecast to develop on the east coast. That is a pretty radical change which has come and gone in the model runs, so we’ll watch the continuity of that but if it does occur it could mean some cooler weather. But it is voodoo that far out!

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A new Weather Xtreme Video should be posted by 8 am or earlier tomorrow morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate information on past hailstorms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. We work primarily for people involved in insurance cases and for attorneys. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

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