Strong Storms This Afternoon

A cold front is pushing through eastern Mississippi at this hour.

Over Alabama, a warm, moist airmass is in place. Skies are beginning to clear, and rapid surface heating will follow once the sun is out.

Instability. CAPE values are already around 1000 j/kg over North Central Alabama and 1500 j/kg over South Central sections. Lifted indices are already in the -3 to -5 range. These values will support storms.

Surface temperatures are in the 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. That’s good moisture.

Storms will fire ahead of the front, generally around the I-59 corridor early this afternoon. Those instability values will be on the increase, rising into the moderate range, around 2000-3000 j/kg for CAPE and -4 to -6 on the lifted index. This will result in some pretty hefty storms this afternoon.

There is enough bulk wind shear to support organized storm development, which means today’s storms won’t be of the pulse variety that form and rain themselves out quickly. Today’s storms will be able to hold together. They will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

The good news is that there is not much organized spin in the atmosphere, so tornadoes shouldn’t be a problem, even though they can never be ruled out with severe storms.

The SPC has areas east of a line from Tuscaloosa to Huntsville in a slight risk outlook for severe weather today.

This all means that everyone near and south of I-59 needs to keep an eye to the sky today and needs to stay close to a reliable source of weather information as the storms fire.

Category: Uncategorized