Wet/Stormy Day

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ACTIVE WEATHER: As I write this, Jim Stefkovich, the meteorologist in charge of the Birmingham NWS office, just wrote this note on the internal chat session:

“morning everyone. unfortunately, it looks like another long day ahead with lots of warnings. with surface dewpoints upper 60s to lower 70s, surface based CAPEs already above 1000J/kg. in addition, helicity in increasing rapidly across western al. all this to say, we will likely be issuing numerous SVRs ahead of the line currently moving into NW AL, but there could be some spin ups within the line and a few TORs are possible. Finally, with all the recent rains, we will likely be issuing FFWs too. jim s.”

Jim makes some good points, and it does indeed look like the day will be active with a variety of weather issues to deal with.

THIS MORNING: Strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the northern half of the state this morning, with potential for damaging wind and hail. Seems like the tornado potential for the next few hours is limited, but as we all know, when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected. Quite frankly, the biggest issue this morning could be flooding with these tropical downpours. Some North Alabama communities have already gone over one inch this morning, and an additional one to two inches of rain are likely with the latest batch of storms. The NWS in Huntsville just issued a flash flood warning for DeKalb, Jackson, Marshall, and Madison counties until 9:00.

THIS AFTERNOON: The big storms over North Alabama should set up some kind of surface boundary over the central part of the state, with the rain cooled air to the north, and very unstable warm air to the south. This boundary should serve as the main focus for storms this afternoon, and most likely it will be somewhere close to, or maybe just south of I-20. These storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, and some risk of isolated tornadoes if the surface winds can back to the southeast.

Once again, this will be a day to be in a position where you can hear severe weather warnings as they are issued.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Nothing to sweep out the moist, tropical air, so there will be some risk of at least scattered showers and storms on a daily basis through Sunday. SPC now has much of Alabama in yet another slight severe weather risk (their standard risk) tomorrow, so we will be watching for potential for strong to severe storms once again with steep lapses rates and unstable air. The best chance of organized severe weather on Friday seems to be a little north of here.

For the weekend, we expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 80s, and dewpoints up in the 60s. Another surface boundary will be lurking just to the north, and outflow boundaries from that could kick off one or two organized rounds of storms Saturday and Sunday.

LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any strong eastern U.S. upper trough that will drive a cold front through here, so the warm and muggy conditions should continue into mid-month. And, like summer, with this kind of air it will be hard to find a day where you won’t have at least a few scattered showers and storms around.

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The blog will be busy today with weather updates… so stay tuned. I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video this afternoon, if the weather isn’t too active!

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