Tropical Action In The Gulf By Friday?

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

While the general weather won’t change all that much across Alabama through the rest of the week, we actually have several items to discuss this afternoon…

RIGHT NOW: As expected, we have a few isolated showers over the western third of the state. The showers are few and far between, and most of North Alabama is dry. Oddly enough, we have a flash flood warning for the southeast part Baldwin County, near the Gulf coast… NEXRAD data from the Mobile radar suggests up to 6 inches of rain near and just south of the community of Lillian. Some flash flooding has been reported in that region in the last couple of hours.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Not much chance is expected; although the NAM goes a little crazy with high POPs (probability of precipitation) here on Friday. For now, we will just mention the chance of widely scattered afternoon showers or storms, with the best chance over the western counties of the state. Afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid 80s, just a little above normal values for late May in Alabama.

ACTION IN THE GULF: Everything sure seems to be pointing to the potential for a tropical storm to form in the southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. The NAM is the most aggressive on the 12Z runs; it develops a closed system about 150 miles west of Key West on Saturday; this system then moves across southern Florida on Sunday, and into the Atlantic on Monday. This would bring some very beneficial rain to much of Florida south of I-4. Also, it would mean rough surf and rip tides for the Alabama and Northwest Florida Gulf coast this weekend, but the bulk of the heaviest rain will most likely remain south of our Gulf coast.

Water temperatures continue to warm; buoy 42003, in the southern Gulf 262 nautical miles south of Panama City, is reporting an ocean temperature of 79.2 degrees right now. The sea water temperature at Key West is 80 degrees.

If a tropical system forms, the name will be Barry. And, the impact on the northern half of Alabama should be negligent if the system moves northeast, as we expect.

OUR WEEKEND: We will mention a chance of a few scattered showers and storms around here on Saturday and Sunday, but no hint of anything really widespread at this point as the best dynamics will remain to the north. Highs stay in the 80s.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS develops a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the nation early next week, which pushes a surface front into North Alabama Monday. This should mean a general increase in the number of showers and storms early next week. The front will most likely wash out over Central Alabama during the mid-week period.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. There is a story over there about a new tropical storm (Barbara) that has formed in the East Pacific, off the coast of Mexico.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. David Black continues his interview with the new director of the National Hurricane Center this week.

This will be my last official weather discussion here on the blog until Monday; I will be spending some time down at the Alabama coast with my family in coming days. And, yes, you bet I will be taking the roads less traveled. I will try to post some pictures as time allows… Brian Peters, J.B. Elliott, and Bill Murray will cover blog duty while I am away. Also thanks to Jason Simpson for pulling some very long hours at the TV station tomorrow (he is working the ole double shift), and also Ashley Brand for her help on Friday!

Category: Uncategorized