Models Trending Toward A Drier Weekend

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No doubt the GFS is now trending drier for Alabama toward the end of the week and the weekend, not good news for a state that is parched. I love the note I received this afternoon from J.B. Elliott concerning the QPF graphic today (the 5 day precipitation forecast for the nation):

“I printed a color copy of the 5-day QPF chart from HPC this morning. I have never seen anything like it. Rain was painted for all of the USA from Montana to Cuba EXCEPT the Decatur-Birmingham-Roanoke narrow strip in Alabama.

5 inches for Miami
4.00 BTR (Baton Rouge)
3.50 ICT (Wichita)
4.00 GCK (Garden City, Kansas)

Amazing”

But, we don’t need to give up on rain. In fact, we actually have some showers over the southwest part of Alabama right now, and we are going to mention the chance of isolated showers for the western counties of Alabama through Friday, on a daily basis. A few lucky neighborhoods could see a few showers on that side of the state. But, for the eastern half (east of I-65), the chance of an afternoon shower looks tiny for the next few days. Highs will stay in the 80s, and lows in the 60s.

THE WEEKEND: We will scale down the chance of scattered showers and storms for Saturday and Sunday based on model trends. There will be some around, but looks like they will be widely separated due to the lack of good dynamics.

The GFS does show an increased risk of showers and storms early next week with an upper trough axis along the Mississippi River, but it sure is hard to trust that model with the poor performance of late.

AIR QUALITY: There is a code yellow forecast for the Birmingham metro area (Jefferson and Shelby Counties) tomorrow, meaning air quality is expected to be in the moderate category.

TROPICAL ACTION? We note that there remains some hint of a tropical system forming in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend; then moving across South Florida and into the Atlantic. This won’t help us, but hopefully that will bring some beneficial rain to the southern half of Florida Saturday or Sunday, mainly for areas south of I-4.

WEATHER BRAINS: Scroll down for the show notes on the new WeatherBrains episode that is now available on the web and on iTunes.

WEATHER PARTY: Also, check out the all new look of WeatherParty, our site for weather related news. Everyone will need to re-register; then you can submit weather stories, and vote on the ones already submitted. Lots to read over there as usual.

I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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