Rain Moving In This Weekend

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today**

Not much change in our thinking for the weekend. While we could see a shower tomorrow afternoon, especially west of I-65, the best chance of rain will come tomorrow night into Sunday, and we are still looking at some risk of strong to severe storms by Sunday afternoon.

The latest model runs suggest the surface based CAPE values will rise to the 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg range Sunday afternoon, not overwhelming, but certainly supporting of strong to severe storms. The surface and upper air winds fields on the 12Z runs are not quite as strong, and the ability of the airmass to cover from rain Saturday night and Sunday morning remain in question. SPC keeps all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather for Sunday, and we will be watching developments over the weekend. It doesn’t look like a major threat for now, but with thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, you know.

NEXT WEEK: Monday still looks cloudy and cool with some risk of lingering light rain, especially over the northern third of the state; the sky should clear Tuesday, and the rest of the week looks dry and warmer. Looks like we are headed for the low 80s by Thursday and Friday. The following weekend, April 25-26, looks a little like summer, with highs in the low 80s and just enough moisture for some risk of isolated showers.

And, the GFS continues the idea of warmer and drier weather for the rest of April, although a pretty decent cold front now shows up around the first of May.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

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I enjoyed speaking the University of Alabama on the subject of the ongoing media chaos and disruption… I will talk about it on WeatherBrains next week. Brian Peters will have the video updates over the weekend… my next one will be posted by Monday morning at 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!

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