Moderate Risk For All Of Alabama

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Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the full details on tomorrow’s severe weather threat, and you can scroll down to read the day 2 convective outlook from SPC.

WAITING AND WATCHING: All severe weather parameters remain in place for a significant threat of severe thunderstorms across the Deep South tomorrow. Will there be a MCS on the Gulf Coast to disrupt the event and rob North Alabama of moisture and instability? We will see; the GFS suggests it will be mainly east of here, with a wide open Gulf up I-65. But, that placement could be wrong.

Assuming there is no disrupting issue to the south, conditions are favorable for a few long track, damaging tornadoes across Alabama and Mississippi. Storms also will have the potential for damaging winds and large hail.

Some severe weather parameters for tomorrow evening from the 12Z NAM…

Lifted index -5.1 (listen to this week’s WeatherBrains!)
0 to 3 km storm relative helicity 276.5
850 mb winds (5,000 feet) 41 knots
500 mb winds (18,000 feet) 72 knots

TIMING: The main window of this event for Alabama will be from 12:00 noon until 12:00 midnight; the initial problems will begin over West Alabama, with activity moving on to the east during the late afternoon and evening hours. The core of the event will most likely come between 3:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m.

BOTTOM LINE: You will need to be close to a good source of severe weather watches and warnings, especially tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The sky will clear Friday, and Saturday will be a beautiful day with lots of sun and a high well into the 70s. But, yet another round of storms will move into Alabama Sunday, with some potential for strong to severe storms. SPC has all of Alabama in a day 5 severe weather risk (Sunday). We will focus on the Sunday event after tomorrow’s event is out of here.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like we might have to begin highlighting the risk of a freeze early Tuesday morning; the 12Z GFS is coming in much colder, and prints a low of 30 for Birmingham Tuesday morning, which would, of course, mean 20s for most of the colder places. This is why we have been cautioning you not to plant anything that would be damaged by a freeze. It is just too early, but after that event you should be in good shape until November.

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I really had a wonderful time visiting my friends at Oakman Elementary School this morning… be sure and look for the kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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