Mid-Afternoon Update

ON THE ROAD: Ashley Brand and Clay Barnett are in Storm Chaser 33/40… see their live stream on the left, under the live radar stream. You can make both of these full screen if you want… Dr. Tim Coleman is also headed out and if he gets video online we will make that available as well.

SPC: The guys at SPC expect to issue a tornado watch sometime before 3:00 for much of North Alabama. Like us, they are watching radar and satellite trends. At the first sign of development ahead of the front/dry line, expect the watch to be issued.

REMEMBER: When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected. Long time readers know that is a running theme, and certainly today’s events bring the truth of that saying to all of us. This morning’s rain really worked the atmosphere over, but the recovery is in progress, and with a decent amount of solar insolation, surface based CAPE values are now over 1,000 j/kg ahead of the dry line, which is near the Alabama/Mississippi border.

THE NEXT FEW HOURS: The RUC continues to show high EHI (energy helicity index) values over East Alabama this afternoon, in the 2.0 to 3.0 category, which is very significant. Seems like the “sweet spot” of instability, shear, and dynamic forcing will be generally east of I-65, and north of I-20 in the 3:00 to 7:00 p.m. time frame. Initially the storms will, most likely, be widely scattered, and certainly have the potential for rotating updrafts. Cold air aloft will also mean potential for hail. We will just have to wait and see if dynamic forcing can bring storms up and through the capping inversion that is in place over West Alabama. The build-ups should break through east of I-65.

BOTTOM LINE: I have lived through many of these intense spring cyclones, which bring big time snow for the cold sector (scroll down for the Amarillo snow pictures), and severe storms in the warm sector. They bring a little bit of everything, and there are always surprises. Expect more this afternoon… and stay tuned as this event continues to unfold.

TROLLS: For those new to the blog, like I have said many times, I really don’t mind the trolls, the haters, and the know-it-alls; they actually make it interesting here at times. Anytime there is a forecast bust, or a perceived bust, or even remote possibility of a bust, they will here in full force. But, we don’t allow profanity, personal attacks, or posts that feature misleading information. Lots of posts were deleted earlier today; let’s all take a deep breath and be think before you post. I have determined that Alabama weather brings heated discussions, almost to the level of the Alabama/Auburn rivalry.

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