Snow analysis

The overall idea that the main precipitation in north and central Alabama will be associated with the cold front tomorrow, not the Gulf low, is still in place. There is still model disagreement as to how fast the cold air will move in, so the idea of at least a little snow is not gone.

The American models (NAM and GFS) show the precipitation ending just as the cold air gets in here. If these models are correct, we could see a brief period of snow (3 hours or less) tomorrow, especially in the Tennessee Valley, but ground temperatures should be warm, and accumulations (other than maybe grassy areas) appear unlikely. These models indicate that the extreme northern part of the state (HSV, MSL, higher elevations near Fort Payne) may see a little driving trouble tomorrow, but even there probably not.

The UKMET and the Canadian model both bring the cold air in faster, showing the rain changing over to snow earlier, indicating the possibility of a 1-2″ snow somewhere over north Alabama.

So, 24 hours out, we still have model disagreements. It’s American model physics vs. Canada and England. In this case, I have to lean toward the light dusting on grass before ending scenario, especially for BHM. It’s 62 degrees in BHM, and even 63 in Bowling Green, Kentucky, with SW winds bringing in warm air still. Also, clouds will start to move in overnight, and combined with some wind, should limit radiational cooling some.

I just don’t see how that much precipitation-suppressing cold air moving in, combined with all the sunshine and temps in the 60s today warming the ground, can produce a major winter event here. So, probably no big deal, except maybe from HSV north. We may see some light snow tomorrow afternoon, but nothing sticking to roads, just maybe grassy and tree spots.

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