Watching and Waiting

*** Due to time constraints this morning there won’t be a Weather Xtreme Video ***

Lots of eyes focused on Monday and Monday night, and Dr. Tim Coleman has an excellent discussion below this one, so be sure to check it out. I’ll try not to cover all the same ground, but that will be difficult.

Today and Sunday we should see a nice warm up. Temperatures today with lots of sun should climb into the 50s across Central Alabama with readings Sunday reaching the lower 60s. Clouds should be on the increase late Sunday and into Sunday night.

Monday…a digging trough promises to plunge us back into winter with the continued threat of winter weather. However, the latest GFS, NAM, GEM, ECMWF, and JMA are indicating a surface low further south than previously seen. This trend in the models began with the runs yesterday afternoon. As Dr. Coleman points out and as we’ve seen with many of these scenarios, the cold air arrives as the precipitation comes to an end. This means some potential for snow but this usually means little accumulation. The rain is likely to change over to snow or snow flurries Monday afternoon across northwest sections and into the early evening hours in the vicinity of Birmingham.

It is imperative that everyone understand that we are still dealing with forecasts for a storm system that does not yet exist. Every meteorologist who forecasts weather in the Southeast US knows that a very small change in the position of the low or a slight change in the timing of the arrival of the cold air can result in a major change to the resulting weather. Don’t take this as a cop out! It is not – it’s fact. It is one of many reasons forecasting winter weather in the South is downright hard!

Once the surface low forms, most of the models are taking it northeastward but there is a major forecast issue for them as well. The earlier tracks took the surface low along the coast but just inland. These latest runs are all indicating a low position slight offshore of the Atlantic coast which could create many more winter weather problems for that area.

Moving on, the trough digs into the Eastern US so Tuesday is expected to be a cold day. An impulse moving down the backside of the trough is likely to bring some clouds and light snow or snow flurries to northern Alabama on Tuesday afternoon and evening, but I really do not expect enough snow to cause any problems. Tuesday is likely to be one of those cold, raw days with highs way below averages for early February.

Wednesday is dry with the continued chill, but by Thursday the surface high will settle in across North Florida so we should see a warm up with afternoon highs getting back into the 50s. The overall pattern flattens out and goes slightly southwesterly by the end of the week and into the weekend allowing us to get back to highs near 60.

Peeking into voodoo country, the pattern remains active with two potentially wet systems around the 9th and the 11th before an eastern US ridge sets up with dry and slightly warm weather. The NAO shows only a slight negative side, so it would appear that we should not be seeing any extreme weather.

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Sorry for the lack of video today, but I am in Troy with my wife attending the Pike Piddlers Storytelling Festival with some great nationally known storytellers. Time and limited connectivity contributed to this situation, but I did want to get an weather discussion posted. I’m sure with the prospects of winter weather late Monday that you’ll be seeing updated posts today and tomorrow as we continue to try to figure out what the atmosphere is going to do. In the meantime, enjoy the warming trend and the sun today. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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