Monday, Monday

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Anyone remember the song by the Mamas and Papas?

“Every other day, every other day,
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes
You can find me cryin’ all of the time”

Will the snow lovers be crying Monday? That is the big question. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion…

THE WEEKEND: Dry weather will continue through Sunday; we reach the mid 50s tomorrow, followed by low 60s on Sunday. Clouds will move in Sunday night, and rain should begin soon after midnight.

MONDAY: Most of you took the time to read the first call I posted at mid-morning. We do have the 18Z NAM in hand (just completed, after the Weather Xtreme video was produced), and it continues the idea of accumulating snow over North-Central Alabama; in the 1 to 3 inch range. We will see how the 18Z GFS handles the situation, but I still don’t feel comfortable putting down an axis of heavier snow at this point due to the model hokey pokey. That high sure is strong off the Atlantic coast, and could be a sign that 12Z GFS run was not reliable.

HERE IS THE DEAL: A widespread rain Monday morning, changing to snow during the afternoon. Here the approximate “change to snow” times:

Muscle Shoals 12:00 p.m.
Haleyville 1:00 p.m.
Jasper 3:00 p.m.
Birmingham/Tuscaloosa 5:00 p.m.
Anniston/Gadsden 6:00 p.m.

A dusting is likely, and some light accumulation possible, as far south as I-20. Once again not enough evidence at this point to put down a heavier snow band in the forecast.

All of the precipitation should end by 8:00 p.m. Tuesday will be very cold, although the 12Z runs of the global models are not quite as cold. We might rise above freezing for a brief time, but it will be windy and cold day with a chance of snow flurries. Wednesday will remain cold, with a more pronounced warming trend beginning on Thursday.

NOTE: Like I wrote this morning, with every winter storm event in Alabama there will be some that are delighted with what they get, and other disappointed. After the snow in Northwest Alabama back in December, we received over 500 pictures of kids playing the snow, making snowmen and having snow ball fights. But, at the same time others to the south were calling us idiots and letting us know that “it doesn’t snow in Alabama anymore”. Remember, just because it isn’t happening in your back yard, that doesn’t mean there is no snow around here. We will do our best over the weekend to identify the corridor that will have the best chance of accumulating snow.

Also, I get lots of e-mail from people asking me why our forecast is different from the NWS, other local TV stations, national private weather firms, etc. All I can say is that I have long days and have no time to see what anyone else says. We do our best here to raise the curtain and let you see what goes into our forecast; you will need to get in touch with the other folks to ask them what is involved with their thinking. We do our best to be very transparent here.

TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I had a great time today visiting with the kids in the second grade at Trace Crossings Elementary; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. Also… I was able to see the third graders today at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster for a program honoring one of their special children, Cassidy Fortenberry. We had a wonderful time.

Brian Peters will have the forecast discussions over the weekend; he is a road warrior tomorrow and Sunday, and might not be able to produce the Weather Xtreme video, but he will be writing the discussion. And, of course, I will be around with thoughts from time to time. My next regularly scheduled Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. Monday. Enjoy the weekend!

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