Rain Replaced by Colder Weather

The Sunday edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

Wow, what a challenging day Saturday presented to us. Yesterday certainly reminds us that determining what the atmosphere will do usually boils down to the mescoscale features. Dew points recovered quite nicely across Central Alabama yesterday morning climbing into the lower 60s. Greatest instability remained close to the Gulf Coast. And the strong storms that developed across Southeast Mississippi and moved across South Alabama seemed to cut off much of the development further north across Central Alabama. For a time just after noon, it looked as if a dry slot was developing across South Mississippi that might help to fire severe storms across West Central Alabama, but that large complex of storms across South Alabama just didn’t let that happen.

SPC’s storm report graphic shows a number of wind damage reports across Mississippi, South Alabama, and South Georgia, so it was an active day living up to the moderate risk. But today we’re dealing with cold air advection as cold air replaces the mild air we had Friday and Saturday. In fact, it will be downright blustery out there today with a strong northwest wind at 15 to 25 mph. Temperatures will only reach the lower 50s across Central Alabama with a solid deck of clouds for much of the day. We may see a few peeks of sunshine by late afternoon as the clearing line now located along the Mississippi River advances eastward. But I don’t think I’d count on much sun today.

Monday morning will be pretty chilly with lows down into the middle 30s. That opens the possibility for scattered light frost in those normally colder valley locations. The latest model guidance suggests that the wind may not go calm, so that could help to keep temperatures above freezing and prevent much frost from occurring.

Rather benign weather scenario for Central Alabama for the next week or so. The strong upper low coming into southern California will move into West Texas by Tuesday and to North Florida by Wednesday. The low will weaken as it comes across the Southeast States, so I do not expect a lot of rain with it. Moisture will be limited so we will probably see some scattered showers late Tuesday and Wednesday but not enough rain to really help the rainfall deficit situation.

It should also warm up quickly after the chilly start tomorrow with another brief cool down on Wednesday. But we should be back into the 70s and push 80 by the end of the week and into next weekend as an upper ridge develops over the Eastern US. So next weekend is looking very Spring-ish with sunshine, dry conditions, and warm afternoon temperatures.

Looking way ahead, another strong upper low is forecast to impact Alabama around April 24th with the possibility of some strong storms and good rain chances. By the end of April, around the 30th, the GFS is suggesting another long wave trough over the Eastern US which could bring another round of cooler weather to the Southeast. But this is well out into voodoo territory, so we’ll watch the trends.

Great storm chase with James Spann yesterday. We ended up in the vicinity of Highland Home in Crenshaw County in an ideal spot. Fortunately the thunderstorm did not produce any tornadoes and only some minor wind damage. But it was a thrilling chase and we prided ourselves in being in the right location to see something. James will be back tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I hope everyone has a great day. God bless.

-Brian-

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