Frigid Air

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A few 5:00 a.m. reports across Alabama….

Scrougeout (Northeast Etowah County, northeast of Gadsden) 8
Haleyville 9
Huntsville (National Weather Service) 9
Walnut Grove 10
Hamilton 11
Trussville 13
Birmingham 14
Greystone Cove 14

J.B. will have a long list of lows later this morning; most places will experience their low between 6:00 and 7:00. We note the wind is still blowing, and the current wind chill index in Birmingham is 4 degrees. OUCH.

TODAY AND TOMORROW: I am not sure we can get above freezing today with CAA still ongoing (cold air advection). Both the NAM and the GFS are showing a high of 32, and we might be a little warm in our forecast with 34. At least the sun will be shining.

Seems like we will be in the 13 to 18 degree range early tomorrow for most places, with potential for more single digit lows for the colder valleys across North Alabama. Keep those pipes wrapped. Then, we warm well into the 40s tomorrow thanks to a low level southwest flow.

TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY: Clouds will increase tomorrow night in advance of a strong lobe of energy rotating through the long wave trough. The GFS is more aggressive with moisture return on the 06Z run, and suggests a few periods of rain (thickness values are warm enough for just rain initially), followed by some risk of a brief change to light snow. We note the NAM remains dry as a bone with nothing significant. If the 12Z run keeps up, we will probably hit the chance of rain Sunday a little harder in our forecast package.

NEXT WEEK: Another shot of cold air blows in here Monday; we might not get out of the 30s with a chill north wind. Then, another upper impulse passes north of us Monday night and Tuesday; for now we won’t mention any risk of precipitation with this feature. We do note the ECMWF tries to spin up a significant surface low as a reflection of this, but again, we won’t bite on anything like that at this point.

Tuesday also looks cold with a high around 40 and a low in the 20s. A moderating trend finally begins Wednesday, and by Thursday we could be approaching 60. That sure sounds good.

VOODOO LAND: The GFS continues to show a nice rain event in the January 27-28 time frame, and no Arctic air in sight for the last week of the month as we warm up nicely.

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Busy busy day… I am speaking this morning at an awards ceremony at Vestavia Hills/Cahaba Heights Elementary, and then I have weather programs at Oak Mountain Elementary, and then Greystone Elementary. I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon. STAY WARM!

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