Phase One Of The Big Chill Arrives Today

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A RAW DAY: Northwest winds will increase this morning, ushering in the first segment of cold air into Alabama. We will struggle to reach the 40s today, and some places north of Birmingham could stay in the 30s all day. The gusty winds will make it feel colder, and we will hang on to some risk of scattered flurries, mainly north of I-20, this morning as a very strong upper trough rotates through the state. We will drop down into the low 20s by daybreak tomorrow, with upper teens for the valleys and colder spots across the northern half of the state.

Tomorrow will be a relatively calm day with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the 40s, with light wind.

ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY: The Deep South goes into the deep freeze Thursday and Friday, and there is not much change in our thinking of recent days. We will stay below freezing much of the day Thursday, with wind chill index values in the single digits, reaching zero at times. North of Birmingham, sub-zero wind chill index values are possible. The air looks very dry Thursday and most likely we can drop the mention of flurries; the big story is the cold.

The bottom will drop out by Friday morning, and most communities will be somewhere between 10 and 15 degrees at daybreak Friday. The latest GFS MOS shows 12 for Birmingham, which is what we are using in our forecast. That actually has me concerned we are too warm; we might have to adjust the numbers down slightly in coming days. The colder valleys will be in the single digits Friday morning, somewhere between 4 and 9. This is pipe bursting weather, you know, so if you have exposed pipes be sure and have them wrapped and protected. Bring in the pets, and check on elderly people that might not have adequate heat. This is serious cold for Alabama.

The weather during the day Friday won’t be as harsh, with a sunny sky and light wind, but cold air remains with highs only in the mid 30s. And, Saturday morning will feature another very damaging freeze with mid teens likely. In fact, I am beginning to be concerned that Saturday morning will be just as cold as Friday morning.

REST OF THE WEEKEND: A strong disturbance will roll through the state late Saturday night into Sunday morning, and we will maintain the chance of some light rain or light snow. The 00Z GFS tried to get a little more aggressive with moisture return, but the 06Z GFS looked very similar to recent runs with only limited moisture. We can focus on this more closely by Thursday once the Arctic air is delivered and we can actually get a good look at the players involved. But, for the moment, it does not look like a major winter storm threat.

The weather stays cold on Monday of next week, with a hint of flurries over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama. A moderating trend begins by the middle of the week.

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I am on the road to Calhoun County; I will be doing a weather program this morning at Piedmont Middle School… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day and stay warm!

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