Big Change To Cold Weather Next Week

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Let me say up front to new blog readers; anytime we mention even a chance of extreme cold, snow, or ice, the trolls, haters, and know-it-alls show up on the blog. Just remember, God loves them too and we let them share whatever they want as long as there are no personal attacks or profanity. So… be prepared… and be nice…

SHORT TERM: A beautiful day coming up tomorrow; we begin the day around freezing, but rise to near 60 with ample sunshine. Then, showers are likely on Saturday with a passing surface boundary; rain totals of 1/4 to 1/2 inch seem likely. Then, cooler and drier air moves in on Sunday with a sunny sky.

ARCTIC EXPRESS NEXT WEEK: I still don’t have much interest in the specifics of the individual model runs right now. They don’t understand the depth of the cold air over Alaska and Northwest Canada, and it will struggle with it as it moves down into the continental U.S. next week. MOS products won’t be very helpful, and we will go well below them. I am just interested in the pattern.

I have had e-mails from people telling me about TV stations, weather offices, and individuals that are forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s next week. I honestly don’t care about what others are saying; sounds like anyone forecasting that is simply using climatological normals in the 5 to 7 day period.

Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion.

WOW: Check out what J.B. Elliott says in his afternoon forecast package over on the seven day page:

“You will rarely see me predicting snow more than two or three days in advance, but I believe this time we will have a chance of seeing some snow about one week from now. By next Wednesday, we are looking at a huge powerful high-pressure system with a central pressure of 1060mb pushing into Montana. (1060mb is about as strong a high that you will ever see in the lower 48.) About one week from today, that bitter cold will be overrunning Alabama and could bring us our coldest temperatures so far this season. Stay tuned as this little weather drama unfolds over the next several days. Be sure and read/listen closely to James’s extreme video updates. He will be showing graphics that support all of this. ”

J.B. is very conservative in medium range forecasting, so that really gets our attention. He has been going weather professionally over 50 years, you know.

WHAT WE KNOW: It will be very cold next week; the coldest air so far this season, and perhaps in several years. I still think highs will be in the 30s and lows in the teens at mid-week, and most likely the cold air will be very shallow, which means you won’t see it reflected in the 1000 to 500 mb thickness values on model charts. The cold air will be in place Tuesday through Friday. A few flurries could accompany the cold air Monday night and Tuesday, but the air should be too dry for serious problems. Confidence level in very cold weather is high.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: If we will have snow or ice at the end of the week. The 12 GFS continues this idea for Thursday, with thickness values low enough for snow. After years of dealing with this kind of outbreak; I have concern that the cold air will be too shallow for snow, allowing for freezing rain. Every model run will look different, let’s wait until Monday until we get really specific. Just understand the idea of some ice or snow is on the table for the latter half of next week.

VOODOO LAND: The NAO flips positive for the last week of the month and we should see moderating temperatures at that time. There could be one more wintry weather threat before that happens, however, as you can see on the Weather Xtreme video.

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I really enjoyed speaking at the American Advertising Federation meeting in Tuscaloosa today… these are scary times in our business; a time of rapid change, but also a time of rapid opportunity. The meeting was at the Cypress Inn on the Black Warrrior River, and I had quite a view of the flooding in progress. I will post some pictures shortly.

The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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