Very Mild Weather Here; Ice Not Far Away

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AMAZING CONTRAST: As you can see from Dr. Coleman’s discussion below, we have an amazing front not too far away. Brutally cold Arctic air covers much of the northern and western U.S.; the coldest air so far this season. Right now Glascow, Montana reports 31 below zero with a wind chill index of 49 below. Pretty tough for mid-December.

In Arkansas, El Dorado (in the southern part of the state) is at 63 degrees, while Rogers (in the north) reports 15 degrees with a wind chill index of 2. Yikes.

ICE STORM WARNING: The Memphis metro area is under an ice storm warning today; that includes adjacent counties in North Mississippi. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the greatest icing should be over Northwest Tennessee around Jackson. If you are traveling that way, be aware the bridges could be very icy.

THE ALABAMA STORY: The front is between Muscle Shoals and Memphis this morning; Memphis is down to 46 (and falling quickly), while the Shoals has 58 with a south wind. The leading edge of the cold air could slip into the northwest corner of Alabama today, with potential for falling temperatures around Florence, and maybe Russellville and Moulton. But, for most of the state, this day will be very mild with afternoon temperatures well into the 60s.

The upper air pattern over North America shows a strong, warm ridge nosing in here from the Gulf of Mexico, with the main trough over the western half of the nation. This should keep Alabama in very mild air this week. In fact, we might flirt with record highs along the way. The GFS hints at mid 70s in here Wednesday and Thursday.

In addition to the warmth, the air will be moist, and we will continue to mention a chance of showers on a daily basis. The 06Z GFS has come in a little drier at mid-week, so we might back down the chance of showers a bit on Wednesday and Thursday with a strong ridge in place.

WEEKEND PEEK: The ridge should break down a bit over the weekend, and there is potential for the cold air to dip into Alabama Sunday and Monday. The cold air will be very shallow (3,000 feet or less), meaning it won’t be reflected in model guidance, making a very difficult forecast. For now Saturday looks mild with a chance of showers (high in the 60s), followed by a change to colder weather Sunday with some rain possible.

If cold air slips into Alabama Sunday night and Monday, there could be some ice issues (no snow with air that shallow), but we won’t be able to deal with that until later in the week. No skill in dealing with this kind of setup days in advance.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: The same general pattern continues next week; the coldest air will be up north and out west, while a ridge should keep us mostly mild around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If shallow cold air does creep in here early in the week, it should retreat northward by mid-week. Hopes for a White Christmas continue to fade. If only we had the negative NAO and an eastern trough, with this brutally cold air… things would be different…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a few episode tonight; it should be available around 10:30 or so.

TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

Today I will be doing a weather program at Glen Iris Christian School in Birmingham… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Category: Uncategorized