Late Night Look at an Interesting Forecast

NOT HYPE, JUST A HEADS UP: Let me start by saying that I want to caution our readers that the potential for wintry weather next weekend is not a forecast at this time. But model consistency is increasing and it certainly is a potential scenario. We are not trying to hype an event, but rather to provide early notice of the potential. We always show our work and let you interpret the potential along with us.

Winter weather advisories are in effect to our northwest as the leading edge of a powerful Arctic airmass edges into the Southeast. Sleet and freezing rain is expected to overspread Arkansas overnight into Monday. Freezing rain is expected to develop Monday afternoon in western Tennessee as temperatures drop below 32F. Could this be a preview of things to come for us by the weekend?

RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR FUTURE: The cold front is over northwestern Mississippi and western Tennessee this morning. The front will make it into Northwest Alabama by late this afternoon. Showers and isolated thunder will increase across Central Alabama ahead of the front. Some precipitation will also fall behind the front, and that leads to a bit of concern about freezing rain in the Northwest corner of Alabama tomorrow night.

The front will slide back northward on Tuesday, but will remain close enough to produce more rain over mainly North Alabama Tuesday and Tuesday night. The big ridge of high pressure over South Georgia and North Florida will flex its muscles on Wednesday, sending a surge of warmer air into Alabama from the south. It will feel positively springlike, with highs in the 70s and a breezy south wind. Look for more of the same on Thursday.

CHANGE TO COLDER By Friday morning, that persistent front will be back, this time wearing its Arctic look. Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm will fall through the day on Friday. The front will take its time slicing through Alabama, but at some point on Saturday, temperatures should start a steady fall. Meanwhile, the southwesterly flow aloft will continue to pump moisture into the area and disturbances rippling along in the flow trigger waves of low pressure along the front. This will result in periods of precipitation on Saturday. Those waves will continue into Sunday, and by then temperatures may well be dropping below freezing, starting first in the Northwest, and gradually sliding southeastward.

If this scenario plays out, we could be dealing with freezing rain or sleet by late Sunday. This is the kind of setup that could produce significant icing, and it is one that will have to be watched.

Category: Uncategorized