Interesting Developments for Next Weekend

J.B. expressed concern last night about what will eventually happen with all that cold air up to the north.

The morning run of the GFS painted an interesting scenario. It finally moves the arctic front in here Friday, preceded by a round of showers and storms. The shallow airmass edges, or more like seeps into North Alabama gradually on Saturday as the front becomes parallel to the upper flow and slows.

Meanwhile, a wave develops along the front and brings more moisture into Central and North Alabama Friday night into Saturday morning. As that wave passes, the heavy, dense cold air will slide a little further south. Then, it develops another wave that moves through on Sunday, with another batch of rain. But the model hints that there could be enough cold air to gradually drop temperatures to at or below freezing starting over Northwest Alabama early Sunday, gradually spreading southward during the day and overnight.

Here is the setup for 192 hours, valid at 12z (6 a.m.) on Monday morning the 22nd.

If that were to happen like that, it could mean a wintry mix of sleet or dreaded freezing rain across North and Central Alabama on Sunday.

It is too early to deal with specific precipitation types or even areas that could be affected. And this is just one model run. We will have to wait and see if the GFS hangs on to this idea as we go through time.

It is certainly plausible, since the cold air is likely to come south as some point, and with a southwesterly flow aloft, the front could hang up over Central Alabama for sure.

So, it will be an interesting forecast for next week as we move forward.

Category: Uncategorized