Thoughts On Yesterday’s Forecast

I have often said that snow forecasting is a no-win situation in Alabama. On days like yesterday, blog traffic soars to record levels as thousands and thousands of people pack in here looking for information. And, we are honored that they all come. This blog has become the standard for weather information in Alabama thanks to those fine men and women that write here; I am just a tiny part of the team.

The original forecast (which was in our discussion beginning two days prior to the event) was for the best chance of accumulating snow in areas northwest of Birmingham, with potential for 1 to 3 inches. That was exactly what happened. The biggest problem in that original forecast was the fact that roads did indeed become hazardous in a few places; one woman was killed, and a child is in critical condition tonight due to an accident on a snow covered road north of Hamilton. Some in that part of the state believed we didn’t hit the event hard enough; Hackelburg measured 4 inches of snow, greater than our forecast.

I committed a major mistake yesterday morning when I veered off that forecast scenario, and adjusted the snow band to the south. This was based on radar trends, and past history with dealing with these kind of cold core upper lows. I had a weather program at Bessemer Academy at 9:30, and then another program with Realty South at 11:30. Bottom line was that I was going to be out of pocket for several hours, and had to make a rather hasty decision. So, I drew the snow box to the south, and was “off the grid” until early afternoon.

I hear that our friends at The Weather Channel (Jim Cantore) went with the same idea shortly after our change; suggesting the heaviest snow would fall from Montgomery to Macon. I totally agreed.

Turns out that the SPC mesoanalysis page thermal fields were a little off (they are based on the RUC model), and the moisture south of I-20 basically vanished in only about one hour after the forecast change. By the time I got back, I knew I made a boo-boo, and flip-flopped back to the original idea, which was the right one.

The lesson learned is that I have to cancel all speaking engagements on these kind of days and focus on the forecast process. That mid-morning flip-flop cost us a very good forecast, and it was totally my fault. And again, thumbs up to the National Weather Service for their lack of a flip-flop.

You can go back and read the discussions and see the videos from this week and see how it all progressed.

Seems like many of the negative comments were from those who came into the blog not knowing what we have been forecasting for days; they just caught the bad placement at mid-morning, or perhaps a winter weather advisory from the NWS for Tuscaloosa, Birmningham, and Gadsden.

We never forecast any travel problems due to warm soil temperatures and surface temperatures above freezing (even during the mid-morning flip-flop). We never forecast a blizzard, or a life-disrupting event.

And, we have nothing to do with what school systems do, or how local governments react. And, we don’t issue winter storm watches and warnings. You are certainly welcome to direct your anger at us for that, but we have no control.

Certainly they have a right to be critical of me; the mid-morning flip was a bonehead call. Not the first, and it won’t be the last. The only kind of people that forecast the weather in Alabama are fools and strangers. And, I sure am not a stranger.

I have a thick skin and don’t mind the hate mail at all. We thank all of you for participating here, whether you like us or not. This is an open forum, and will always be that way. The exchange between readers is what makes it special.

Have a great weekend and thanks again for being part of the family here.

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts