Colder; More Rain; Some Snow…

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CHALLENGING FORECAST: I do believe one of the greatest elements missing from our science is humility. We simply don’t have good skill in a number of weather situations, and events like the one tomorrow is a good example. It is a classic cold core upper low moving right on top of Alabama, and confidence is high that dynamic cooling will bring snow to parts of Alabama. Beyond that, it is pretty tough to answer all of your questions until we can actually look at this thing unfolding over Mississippi tonight. Just the mention of snow on this blog brings out lots of emotion and passion, so let’s take a deep breath and dive in. Please don’t ask about other agencies forecast products, we are busy busy busy and simply don’t have time to see what the rest of the world is doing or saying. What you read below is our best forecast, and is fairly consistent with the package we produced last night.

As always, I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video that goes along with this discussion for all of the graphics.

THE SET-UP: Very cold air is not that far away, despite the fact we are still in the 60s around here today. At 1:00 p.m… Birmingham was reporting 60 degrees, while Memphis was at 38. And, the cold core upper trough is moving across Texas and Louisiana where 500 mb temps (around 18,000 feet off the ground) are approaching -20 (C).

Rain should increase statewide tonight, with the rain changing to snow before ending tomorrow, especially over West and North Alabama. The exact track of the cold pool aloft and the surface low will determine who gets snow, and the amount.

OUR THINKING: Looks like the heaviest snow will be over Mississippi; some spots in the triangle between Jackson, Meridian, and Columbus could see 5 inches of snow, with average amounts of 1 to 3 inches, mostly on grassy areas.

IN ALABAMA: Based on the 12Z runs of the GFS and the NAM, it believe it is very possible that these counties near the Mississippi border will have a chance of some accumulating snow on grassy areas: Marion, Winston, Lamar, Fayette, Pickens, and Sumter. How much? Possibly one to two inches. For the rest of Alabama, accumulation doesn’t seem likely based on the forecast track of the key features of this system. But, a dusting is certainly possible for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Cullman, and Gadsden.

Travel problems seem unlikely due to the warm soil temperatures and the fact that surface temperatures will remain above freezing during the day.

DISCLAIMER: Remember, skill in a forecasting dynamic cooling and the associated snow with a cold core upper low is not good, and this forecast is subject to change in coming hours. The best analog to this event is December 14, 1997, when over six inches of snow fell over parts of West-Central Alabama when we were only forecasting a cold rain.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Sunshine returns in full force Friday and our weather will be dry and cool Friday through Sunday. The high Friday will be in the upper 40s, followed by 50s on Saturday and Sunday. Mornings will be cold with sub-freezing temperatures likely Friday and Saturday morning.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Moisture levels will increase on Monday and Tuesday, and few widely scattered showers could show up, but nothing really organized. Then, a ridge nosing in here from the south should keep temperatures fairly mild for a while, possibly into Christmas, with the cold air trapped to the north and west. The western U.S. looks very cold for the latter half of December.

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I had a great time today seeing the kids at Briarwood Christian School…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… and again stay tuned for updates and potential changes to this forecast package!

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