Strong Storms Possible This Evening

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The rainfall deficit for the year for Birmingham is rapidly approaching 10 inches, so needless to say we will welcome any opportunity for rain. And, we will have showers and thunderstorms around here this afternoon and tonight in advance of a cold front. I am afraid the rain during the next 24 hours won’t be a drought-buster, however… the NAM is printing only 0.20″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is showing 0.28″ (both numbers extracted from the 00Z runs). Some neighborhoods will see more where strong storms develop, but generally speaking, it sure looks like rainfall will be 1/2 inch or less for most places.

We do note SPC has expanded the slight risk of severe weather over a larger part of Alabama, but I am still not convinced we will have a big problem with severe weather. The stronger winds and the better dynamics will remain north of here, where a moderate risk is up for the general area from Memphis to Indianapolis. Steep lapse rates will mean some chance of hail in the stronger storms across Alabama late this afternoon and early tonight, and there also might be a few reports of high winds from the stronger storms.

A COOL BREEZE: The rain will end during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, and the sky will become mostly sunny. But, a northerly flow will bring the start of a very significant cooling trend for Alabama. The high tomorrow will be in the upper 60s, and by Thursday morning we will be down in the mid to upper 30s. There will be a few reinforcing shots of colder air by Friday and the weekend, and the GFS continues to trend colder. Here is a look at the forecast lows for Birmingham, coming from the GFS MOS:

Thursday morning 37
Friday morning 34
Saturday morning 34
Sunday morning 29
Monday morning 32

Once again we stress that this is not a “one number” kind of place… so there is a chance that some spots will be at freezing Friday and Saturday morning. Looks like most all of North and Central Alabama will be a little below freezing early Sunday morning, with some frost likely if the wind can go calm. Daytime highs will be in the cool 50s over the weekend, a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal. And, the air will be very dry and we do not expect any rain during the cold snap.

LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS has backed off a bit on the rain potential for Tuesday of next week; it keeps the best dynamics north of the state. However, it does show nice rain events around April 14 and April 17.

WEATHER BRAINS: We recorded a new WeatherBrains last night… that is our 30 minute netcast. Scroll down to see more, and you can listen on the web here. As always, WeatherBrains is available in the podcast section of the iTunes store.

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I will be speaking at Trinity United Methodist Church in Homewood this morning… then it is back to the office and I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30, unless afternoon thunderstorms get out of hand!

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