Best Chance Of Rain Thursday And Friday

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UNSETTLED WEATHER AHEAD: While showers are certainly possible across Alabama tomorrow, it looks like the best coverage of showers and storms across Alabama will come on Thursday and Friday. Lets take a look at events one day at a time….

TOMORROW: The best chance of showers tomorrow should be along and west of I-65. Communities near the Mississippi border have a chance of seeing 1/4 to 1/2 inch, while the weather will be generally dry east of I-65 where dewpoints will remain low.

THURSDAY: A nice moisture axis will be in place, and with nice upward motion courtesy of an upper trough to the west, occasional showers are likely. Lifted index values try to dip below zero, meaning some thunder is possible as well. Most of Alabama should see 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain Thursday. It won’t rain all day, but it could rain at any time during the day.

FRIDAY: The GFS continues to show a thunderstorm complex moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico; I am afraid this could disrupt the inflow into North Alabama and reduce our rain totals up this way. Still, we will forecast a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Instability values remain rather marginal, and at this time we don’t expect a major problem with severe storms.

THE WEEKEND: A sharp change to colder weather is ahead for the weekend; the 12Z GFS is coming in colder, and I think that is correct considering the big early snow cover up north. The air won’t modify much coming down the pike, and I am not sure we can get out of the 40s on Saturday with an icy north wind. The 12Z GFS is also hinting at snow flurries across the Tennessee Valley; I sure can’t rule that out. You will need to dress warmly for the college football games Saturday and Saturday night; we will have the complete football forecast here Thursday. Sunday will be a sunny day with a high in the 50s. The coldest morning could come early Monday with a widespread freeze across North Alabama. The colder places seem headed down into the low to mid 20s.

VOODOO LAND: As you can see from Tim Coleman’s post below, the 12Z GFS is back on the cold air bandwagon for November 20-21, with very low thickness values and snow flurries showing up. No need to get excited…. but the pattern does indeed look cold. Looking out toward Thanksgiving, a moderating trend shows up with temperatures getting back to average values for late November. As always, check out the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion.

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STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up this Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

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