Brighter And Warmer Weather Ahead

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A WARMING TREND AHEAD: Looks like we are headed for the low 80s tomorrow and Wednesday as sunshine returns in better supply, and the moist easterly fetch breaks down. I think the GFS is way too aggressive with the warming; it is printing 84 tomorrow and 89 Wednesday; the NAM shows 80 on both days and should be closer to the truth. Our weather should remain warm and dry on Thursday.

FRIDAY: The 12Z GFS has come in with a wetter solution on Friday; it shows a cold front moving through our state with decent upper support, so we will go ahead and insert a chance of showers Friday. I am still not convinced it will be a big rain event due to limited moisture.

NICE WEEKEND: A nice supply of cooler and drier air arrives just in time for the weekend; looks like highs between 70 and 75, lows between 48 and 53 on Saturday and Sunday with a good supply of sunshine both days. Picture perfect fall weather.

TROPICS: Looks like the latest MJO pulse is doing the mojo out in the Atlantic basin. Nana is dissipating in the Central Atlantic, but TD 15 has formed in the East Caribbean. This one could is forecast to become Tropical Storm Omar in coming days, impacting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, then moving northeast into the open Atlantic (no threat to the U.S. mainland). And, another disturbance in the West Caribbean could become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the details and graphics.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Still looks like a chance of rain around the middle of next week, although the 12Z GFS has pushed the main energy well to the north of here. And, watch the Weather Xtreme video and see what the GFS does around October 29… all voodoo, of course, but certainly possible, and matches my idea of a nice cold pop before the month is over. I fully expect frost on those Halloween pumpkins.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 15 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years), and learn from one of the most brilliant weather researchers in the country, our own Dr. Tim Coleman. We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new show tonight; it will be available by midnight or so. Todd Foisy of the National Weather Service in Anchorage, AK will be our guest.

I enjoyed speaking at the University of Montevallo this morning… got a nice view of our new SKYCAM on the campus while I was there. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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