Notes From Houston/Galveston NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

DISCUSSION

JUST A FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN AND AROUND THE
MADISON-HOUSTON COUNTY LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY.
NO FORECAST UPDATE IS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TRACK
OF HURRICANE IKE. THE 03Z FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE
RIGHT. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACKS
FOR IKE MAKING THE GUESS AS TO WHERE LANDFALL WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE AT THIS TIME. AFTER RESUMING A WEST-NORTHWEST
COURSE TONIGHT…WHERE AND WHEN IKE DECIDES TO HIT THE COAST ON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHEN
ITS CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LANDFALL
LOCATION…IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
——————————————————————————————
GALVESTON COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BEGIN AT 7 AM THURSDAY FOR WEST GALVESTON
ISLAND…JAMAICA BEACH…BOLIVAR PENINSULA…OMEGA BAY…SAN LEON…
BACLIFF…AND FREDDIESVILLE. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED FOR LOW-LYING AREAS IN DICKINSON…KEMAH…CLEAR LAKE
SHORES…AND LA MARQUE. CITIZENS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING
IF THEY LIVE IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF
YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE…PLEASE REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER
KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT.

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