10 pm Advisory and Map

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

…LARGE HURRICANE IKE SLOWLY HEADED NORTHWESTWARD…

AT 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY
WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES…
1090 KM…EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 325 MILES…525 KM…
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
THURSDAY…AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD…AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB…27.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION…24.9 N…86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…944 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT. –FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

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