Ike Late on Saturday Night

PLEASE NOTE: Again. we will see a variety of solutions for Hurricane Ike in the coming week. For example, the new GFS model shows Ike in the vicinity of Mobile and Pensacola about a week from now. (next Saturday night)

The NHS in their separate discussion (not the actual advisory) late tonight, said they were more confident of a track going into the Central Gulf and a little west of previous projections.

Assuming landfall will not be until late next week, IF it is on the North Gulf coast, MUCH can change by that time. Here is the official track forecast followed by the advisory:

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

…LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…

AT 11 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA…HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS…
CROOKED ISLAND…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS…AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND…THE
EXUMAS…LONG ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY…CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS…CUBA…SOUTH
FLORIDA…AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST…0300Z…THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST…VERY NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION…21.2 N…70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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