Bad News Ike–a Very Mean Hurricane

NOTE: Ike is going to be a very worrisome drama that will play out all next week. The official track forecast takes Ike into the Gulf several hundred miles south of the NW Florida Coast by next Thursday.

A variety of other models have different solutions. Bottom line, it is impossible to get a good feel this early. Even if the Mississippi-Alabama-Northwest Florida Coast is his choice of landfall it will be late in the week. Some other models curve him back toward the NE into the Florida Peninsula. Still another one, God forbid, New Orleans.

It will be a nail-biting week ahead, sorry to say. I foresee a major sleep drought next week with record coffee consumption.

Here is the latest tracking map followed by the advisory:

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

…CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…INCLUDING THE ACKLINS…
CROOKED ISLAND…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS…AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND…THE EXUMAS…LONG ISLAND…RUM CAY…AND SAN SALVADOR.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO…SANTIAGO DE CUBA…AND HOLGUIN.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS…CUBA…SOUTH
FLORIDA…AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST…0000Z…THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES…105 KM
…EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…18 KM/HR
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IKE SHOULD RESUME A TRACK BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH…24 KM/HR TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHORTLY…AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. IKE SHOULD
THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION…21.3 N…70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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