Heads Up on Ike for the Whole Gulf

The latest data from the NHC indicates that Ike is back to a Category 4 hurricane. The track over the next couple of days is fairly well known. Almost all of the models are in reasonably good agreement within about 50 miles +/- of the official forecast track predicted by the NHC.

Unfortunately the official track brings Ike into the Southeast Gulf Tuesday afternoon. Gulf storms are just plain bad because they can’t get out of the Gulf without making landfall on the US or Mexican coastline. And Ike is likely to be a Category 3 hurricane when it gets into the Southeast Gulf.

Right now there are two primary avenues that the storm might take. One is northward with landfall at some spot from Mobile to Tampa. The other is much further west into the Texas or Louisiana coast. At this point, both scenarios are equally valid. And everyone needs to understand that no one knows exactly where Ike will go.

The key to the future track of Ike will come around Wednesday or Thursday. At that time, Ike and a short wave trough moving across the northern tier of the US will get close. This will create a weakness in the pressure fields which may allow Ike to turn north and northeastward. The GFS is a strong advocate of this outcome with a current projection of bringing Ike into the Florida Panhandle. The NHC forecasters have described this feature as “the critical player in Ike’s future track at longer ranges.” It’s possible that the short wave will move by either just a bit too far north or perhaps a bit too fast leaving Ike in the Gulf with a westward track possible.

The important point is that anything is still possible next week. Anyone with an interest anywhere along the Gulf coast needs to stay informed.

If there is anything good about the situation right now, it is that the waters of the Gulf have been stirred up by Gustav resulting in temperatures about 2 degrees C cooler than before Gustav. That should help keep the intensity of Ike in check and reduce one element favorable for intensification.

This will be tricky. Elena in 1985 is a prime example of how a short wave trough moving across the upper portion of the US can influence a tropical system. The short wave trough turned Elena toward Florida, but the trough was moving too quickly and they disconnected. When that happened, Elena stalled off the Clearwater/Tampa area for about two days and then resumed a path that eventually took it into Mississippi.

Every meteorologist or weather enthusiast is going to have an opinion about this one. I know that I have mine, but I think this is going to be a cliff hanger type forecast for several more days.

-Brian-

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