More Than You Want to Know about Gustav…

HEADLINES
…Gustav has rapidly intensified overnight…
…Now a category three hurricane…
…May be a category four before reaching Cuba and over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
..After landfall, storm may slow and cause major flood threat over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
…Hurricane watches anticipated this afternoon…
…High winds will reach South Louisiana early monday morning…

LOCATION 20.8N 81.6W…or 255 ESE of the western tip of Cuba…this is 950 miles southeast of New Iberia, Louisiana.

INTENSITY: Max winds 120 mph. Continues to intensify. Central pressure now 955 mb. May become a category four before reaching western Cuba.

MOVEMENT: NW-12 mph. Has jogged a little more to the north in the past few hours, but the forecast course is a beeline to the Louisiana coast, with landfall anticipated on the coast after midnight Tuesday morning.

RECON: Mission 14 into Gustav is Lockheed WP-3D Orion N43RF, a NOAA flight. It is flying a northeasterly leg now, west of Grand Cayman.

WATCHES/WARNINGS: A hurricane watch is anticipated late this afternoon for the Central Gulf Coast.

ONSET OF WINDS: Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast in Plaquemines Parish before daybreak Monday, overspreading Jefferson, LaFourche and Terrebonne Parishes before 9 a.m. They will reach New Orleans by 10-11 a.m. Those tropical storm force winds will continue to spread inland. Strong tropical storm force winds (>58 mph) will reach the coast by noon and overspread southern Louisiana during the afternoon. Hurricane force winds will arrive by late afternoon and spread inland. This forecast is based on a track that has uncertainty attached to it. Thie situation is fluid and can change.

INTENSITY AT LANDFALL: While Gustav is expected to become a Category Four hurricane, it also is expected to weaken slightly before landfall as it encounters southwesterly shear over the Gulf from an upper trough. Right now, winds are expected to be 125 mph, instead of 130 mph. Not much difference there.

STORM SURGE: more information will be available later today as strom surge models are run based on courses Gustav may take.

RAINFALL: almost all of Louisiana should receive 5-10 inches of rain in the next five days with a bulls eye of 15 inches over Southeast Louisiana.

PREPARATIONS
Most parishes in South and Southeast Lousiana have ordered mandatory evacuations and curfew for later today. No alcohol sales when mandatory evacutaion begins.

TRAFFIC
…Traffic heavy but moving slowly in New Orleans. Contraflow starts at 4 a.m. Sunday morning. Traffic is being made heavier by the LSU game.

COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
Grand Cayman…rain…78/77…W-28…29.50 rising
Key West…cloudy…81/74…E-7…29.77
Havana…mostly cloudy…82/73…NE 18

STREAMING TELEVISION COVERAGE
WDSU-TV New Orleans

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