Interesting NAM run

Take a look at the 00 UTC NAM surface charts just in.

Hmm. It shows a tropical system very slowly developing this week in the northern Gulf and then drifting inland around Panama City or Destin by Thursday. The NAM even shows 8.44″ of rain in Panama City this week! This is interesting, since the NAM already shows an area of rain in the Gulf where this low should be starting, but satellite shows nothing. And, the 12 UTC NOGAPS, GFS, and GEM don’t show anything. I wouldn’t worry about this. If a huge area of storms develops in the northern Gulf tomorrow or Tuesday and other models come in line, then maybe. But, if I were going to the beach this week, it wouldn’t stop me! Chance of tropical storm: 5%.

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