Your Thoughts Please…

Monday night’s episode of WeatherBrains will be a very interesting one. The regular panel will be joined by Tampa Weather Examiner Andrea Butera as we welcome KSNW Wichita Chief Meteorologist Dave Freeman. Dave is a leader in the area of leveraging social sciences to improve weather forecasts.

Good weather is not enough. That is only the first step. In order for forecasts and warnings to be effective, we have to consider who is receiving our message, as well as how and when. We then have to understand how that message is processed and how it is responded to.

I would love to have some of your thoughts as we prepare for tonight’s show…

Weather forecasting is filled with uncertainty. Our sensing system is too coarse for us to have accurate input for our numerical weather prediction systems and our understanding of the physics of the atmosphere is not perfect. This leads to lots of uncertainty in our forecasts, especially as we go out in time. How important is knowing that uncertainty to you in your use of forecasts?

How effective are probabilities of precipitation for you? Would you prefer to have them in your forecasts? At what probabilities of precipitation are you likely to change your plans?

How much confidence do you have in forecasts for day one, day two, days 3-5, days 6 and beyond? Which weather parameters in forecast do you have the most confidence in: temperature, chance of precipitation, amount of precipitation?

We often give forecasts, especially temperatures, in terms of a single number. Do you prefer that over having a range of temperatures that could occur, defined by our uncertainty?

What other forecast parameters would help you in your daily activities? Range of potential rainfall amounts? Duration of rainfall? Areal coverage? Forecaster uncertainty? How can we communicate these items best to you as the end user of the information?

Let us hear your thoughts. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter.com. I am @wxhistorian.

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts