Rain, Then Sharply Colder

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As mentioned here for the past several days, the overall idea of this forecast is easy (rain, then much colder), but the nailing down the details is difficult. Let’s dive in….

TODAY: Just some spotty light rain, nothing heavy, nothing really widespread. The high today should be in the low 60s. The most widespread rain today will be over the southern half of Alabama.

TONIGHT: The rain should become more widespread tonight statewide as dynamic lift improves. Models suggest the most significant rain could come after midnight, but no doubt you will need to bring rain gear if you will be attending a high school football playoff game tonight.

IRON BOWL/SATURDAY: Rain should be widespread across Alabama tomorrow morning, with the rain tapering off during the midday or early afternoon. Is there a chance the rain could be over by the Iron Bowl? Yes. Can we promise that? No. This is always a difficult call, and relying on model data can bring some pretty rotten forecast results. But, I do think the heaviest rain will come before game time. See Dr. Tim’s post below… model trends have been pretty clear.

So, for the 2:30 Auburn/Alabama game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, we will forecast a cloudy sky with a chance of some light rain or drizzle, and a kickoff temperature of 60 degrees. Even if the rain ends before game time, the field will be pretty wet, and tailgate parties will be wet as well. I hope your tent doesn’t leak.

SUNDAY: Much colder air rolls into the state on Sunday as a high amplitude, phased upper trough forms over the eastern U.S. I am really getting the idea will begin the day in the low 50s, with temperatures falling into the 40s by afternoon as cold air advection kicks in. There could be a little light rain or drizzle during the day, but not much precipitation.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: As the cold air deepens, we will mention a chance of snow flurries Sunday night and Monday across the northern half of Alabama. No accumulation is expected, and the cold air is the real story. I don’t think we can get out of the 30s Monday (from Birmingham north), and the wind chill index will be below freezing at times. Monday will be a very cold day.

NEXT WEEK: After a significant freeze at daybreak Tuesday, a warming trend begins Tuesday afternoon as we get back into the low 50s. Later in the week, a weak front could bring a few showers late Wednesday night or Thursday, but it doesn’t look like a big deal at this point.

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We are running on a holiday schedule, so the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by Brian Peters tomorrow… my next video will be up bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Of course, we will post forecast notes through the day and over the weekend. If you are headed out to shop today, be careful out there!

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