Happy Thanksgiving

I will crank out a Weather Xtreme video this afternoon… it should be posted by 3:00 p.m. or so. Here is a quick day by day review of our weather in coming days…

TODAY: Dry and mild weather for Alabama on this Thanksgiving Day with a high between 62 and 65 for most places. Like yesterday, we will have periods of mid and high level clouds.

TOMORROW: We will continue the chance of some light rain tomorrow, but the models continue to trend drier. The NAM is printing only 0.03″ through 60 hours; low level moisture will be very limited, so for now it looks like only light and spotty light rain tomorrow and tomorrow night. The high will be close to 60. I am beginning to get the idea much of the day will be dry. Pretty much the same idea for high school football playoff games tomorrow night; maybe a little scattered light rain around, but nothing to seriously cause problems.

SATURDAY/IRON BOWL: Unfortunately, this day looks wetter and wetter. Both the GFS and the NAM show a large mass of rain across the state on Saturday, with some potential for thunder down in South Alabama. The GFS suggests at least 1/2 inch of rain Saturday for this part of Alabama. So, for the Iron Bowl, we will have to forecast a cloudy sky with a good chance of rain, and a kickoff temperature in the mid 50s, near 54 degrees. Rain gear will be needed if you are going to the game in Tuscaloosa (kickoff is at 2:30 this year).

SUNDAY/MONDAY: A deep surface low will move from the Gulf Coast into Georgia Sunday, and colder air will be pulled southward into Alabama. We will maintain a chance of light rain or drizzle Sunday with a high only in the mid to upper 40s. Monday looks like a very cold day; a good chance we won’t get out of the 30s with a chance of morning snow flurries on the back side of the departing system. No risk of accumulating snow in this kind of set-up, generally speaking.

FORECAST QUESTIONS: We always get questions from new readers about our forecast, and why it can differ from other sources. Like I have said here many times, I have no idea what “they” are saying, whether it be the National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel, other local TV stations, Sponge Bob, or Country Boy Eddie. We are big time busy and we simply don’t have the time to check out other products. We are here to tell you exactly what we think will happen based on our forecast process, which involved detailed review of computer model data, analogs, experience, and common sense. Everyone has a different approach to weather forecasting; we do our best here to lay it all out with the Weather Xtreme videos and these discussions. This blog allows you to see what goes on behind the curtain.

Weather forecasting in the Deep South means taking chances, and learning from mistakes that are made. It is difficult business, but our group has been around for a while, and this isn’t our first rodeo. From J.B. Elliott with his 50 plus years of experience, to researcher Dr. Tim Coleman, and the rest of the gang, we think we can offer some very useful insight into coming weather you won’t find anywhere else.

Again, I will have a full discussion and Weather Xtreme video by mid-afternoon. I hope you enjoy some quality time with family and friends today. We are all blessed, you know.

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