Warm Afternoons; Severe Storms Possible Sunday Night

DELIGHTFUL DECEMBER DAY: Temperatures are generally in the 67-70 degree range this afternoon with a partly sunny sky; nothing showing up on radar.

Warm afternoons will headline the forecast through the weekend; expect low 70s tomorrow, and low to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday. These values are not far from record highs… here are the records for Birmingham:

December 11 76 (1931)
December 12 78 (1971)
December 13 79 (1931)

Moisture levels will slowly rise; I guess an isolated shower or two is not totally out of the question tomorrow and Saturday, but most communities stay rain-free with a mix of sun and clouds. Southerly winds will increase Sunday, averaging 12-25 mph by afternoon with higher gusts.

TO THE WEST: Severe storms are possible Saturday over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana ahead of a dynamic storm system, that will bring the threat of strong to severe storms to Alabama Sunday night.

THE ALABAMA SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION: The good news is that models continue to show very little surface based instability Sunday night as the system moves through. This is the primary limiting factor. However, wind fields are very strong with a low level jet (5,000 feet) of over 60 knots. There is also very high amounts of vertical shear; bulk shear values in the lower 3,000 feet are over 35 knots.

TIMING: The main window for strong to severe storms will come from 6:00 p.m. Sunday through 4:00 a.m. Monday.

THREATS: The main threat continues to be from damaging straight line winds; but an isolated, small spin-up tornado or two is certainly possible with the high shear values.

RAIN AMOUNTS: Most places will see about 1/2 inch, and with the storms moving pretty quickly we don’t have any flooding concerns.

SPC has most all of Alabama in a severe weather threat in their “Day Four” convective outlook, which runs through Monday morning at 6:00 a.m.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

NEXT WEEK: Rain will end very early Monday, followed by gradual clearing Monday afternoon. The day will be cooler; a decent chance we won’t get out of the 50s. Tuesday and much of the day Wednesday look dry; the latest GFS model runs suggest a chance of showers Wednesday night and Thursday with a cold front, but moisture will be limited and rain totals probably light.

CHRISTMAS: Still looks like mild weather for the eastern third of the nation Christmas Day, with colder weather for the western half of the country.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Jacksonville State will host Charleston Southern Friday night (7:00p CT kickoff) at Burgess Snow Field in the FCS quarterfinals; the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 65 at kickoff, to near 60 degrees by the final whistle. Very comfortable for December.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through Saturday from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach. Rain and storms will return late in the weekend… See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

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Tags: ANC, mild

Category: Alabama's Weather