Stormy End To The Weekend

DENSE FOG ADVISORY: Dense fog remains a problem for much of North and West Alabama; visibility is very restricted; it will dissipate by mid-morning. Temperatures are mostly in the 40s as the day begins.

Expect a partly sunny sky through the day, and the high this afternoon will be in the 67 to 70 degree range, about ten degrees above average for December 10.

TOMORROW/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Warm is the word by December standards. Expect low 70s tomorrow, and low to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday. Here are the record highs for these three days (for Birmingham)…

December 11 76 (1931)
December 12 78 (1971)
December 13 79 (1931)

Unlikely we break those, but we will be close.

While moisture levels will be on the rise, we won’t mention any chance of rain in our formal forecast for tomorrow and Saturday. And, the bulk of the day Sunday should be dry, although we can’t totally rule out an afternoon shower, especially over West Alabama. And, we should note it becomes windy Sunday, with south winds averaging 12-25 mph ahead of the advertised storm system.

SUNDAY NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: A very dynamic weather system will impact Alabama Sunday night with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Wind fields are impressive; the low level jet (5,000 feet) is forecast to exceed 60 knots. The main limiting factor is the lack of surface based instability and poor lapse rates. SPC has most all of the state in a severe weather risk in their “Day Four” outlook, which extends through 6:00a CT Monday.

TIMING: The core threat for severe weather in Alabama will come from 6:00 p.m. Sunday through 4:00 a.m. Monday.

THREATS: Damaging straight line winds will be the main threat along a long squall line (or quasi-linear convective system… QLCS). There could easily be some tree and power line damage. And, based on very high bulk shear values in the lower levels, a few small, short lived spin-up tornadoes will be possible within the line. It is almost impossible to warn for these since they don’t last long, and are often “under the radar”.

RAIN AMOUNTS: Looks like most places will see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain; the line of storms will be moving along at a good pace, so flooding problems are not expected.

See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details.

NEXT WEEK: We expect a clearing sky Monday, with a high close to 60. The latest GFS suggests we stay dry Tuesday and Wednesday; it now holds off the next chance of rain until the end of the week, on Friday December 18.

CHRISTMAS: Still looks relatively mild for the eastern third of the U.S… and cold for the western half of the nation. Temperatures around here pretty close to average values; that would be highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s. Still way too early to be really specific.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Jacksonville State will host Charleston Southern Friday night (7:00p CT kickoff) at Burgess Snow Field in the FCS quarterfinals; the sky will be mostly fair with temperatures falling from 65 at kickoff, to near 60 degrees by the final whistle. Very comfortable for December.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through Saturday from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach. Rain and storms will return late in the weekend… See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: ANC, mild

Category: Alabama's Weather