Super Sunday Weather

Temperatures began to turn around last night as you can see on the temperature trace from my weather station in Helena. As the sun set, the temperature began to fall, but it level off bouncing between 40 and 45 degrees most of the night.

The large high pressure system that was located over Pennsylvania yesterday morning has shifted east somewhat, but it continued to influence the weather across the Southeast. A weak surface front along with an upper level trough was located in the Central US and will be moving east today and tonight. The upper trough is certainly capable of producing some rain, however, moisture is completing lacking, so this front will move through our area on Monday with only some high or middle clouds to detract from the sunshine. I expect temperatures to be warmer today than yesterday with highs in the lower and middle 60s.

That upper trough scoots out into the Atlantic Tuesday as the upper flow for us goes zonal. Another short wave coming out of the Dakotas on Tuesday will zip by here on Wednesday. There continues to be a very dry air mass in place, so I don’t expect to see more than some clouds once again. Look for highs to stay in the 60s from mid-week into the weekend. These temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than typical early December averages.

Friday a strong trough digs into the Southwest US pumping up heights with a ridge one the eastern half of the country. With the relatively low latitude of this trough, we should see it tap into Pacific moisture. That along with the projected return of low level moisture as our surface low goes southerly and taps into Gulf moisture should bring rain and showers back into the forecast. There are still some differences between the GFS and European model, but they seem a little closer to each other than what we saw yesterday. With the return of southerly flow, morning lows over next weekend will climb into the 50s while daytime highs will push the 70-degree mark.

The trough and associated surface front will move by next Sunday which will bring an end to the rain probably late in the day. But as I point out in the video, we have very little instability, so the threat of any severe weather seems small at this time. Since we are still in our Fall severe weather season, we’ll have to monitor this system for any changes which might raise the severe weather threat.

For those headed to the beach, you can expect beautiful weather for the next few days along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. The increasing southerly flow brings a slight chance of showers back to paradise for Friday and Saturday. The best chance for rain looks like it will be Saturday into Sunday but isolated showers are possible Friday into Saturday. Highs all week will be in the 60s to lower 70s. Lows will be in the 40s through Wednesday and then climb back into the 50s and eventually the 60s by the weekend. The water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab has been running in the upper 50s this weekend. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

Looking ahead into voodoo country, we noted the continuation of a parade of upper level troughs yesterday, and the GFS remains consistent on that idea. It appears that we could see wet weather around the 15th and 16th with the passage of one trough. Yet another one presents itself around the 19th/20th of December. Too early for much of a projection for the Christmas forecast, but climatology tells us that the chances for a white Christmas in Central Alabama are extremely low.

Congratulations to the Alabama football team on securing the 2015 SEC Championship with the win over Florida. The bowl pictures should be coming into better focus now. I had a wonderful time emceeing the 45th annual Helena Christmas parade yesterday. I don’t think the weather could have been much better and we had a big crowd lining the parade route. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather