Bill, Is That You?

We have been looking toward the upcoming period with interest for ten days to two weeks now as the global models have teased that there might be a tropical system in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

There is good agreement now among all of the members of our various model suites that something will develop near the Yucatan or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today, tonight or Monday and move to near the Central Texas coast by Tuesday.

There is already a surface low over the northern Yucatan Peninsula and some gales have been reported over the open water of the western Caribbean in the strong thunderstorms. The pressure is the system right now is about 1008 mb, so not very organized.

Air Force reconnaissance is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. The mission had been scheduled to arrive in the area of the system around 2 p.m., but that was pushed back to 5 p.m. The NHC puts the chance that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone at 60 percent.

EFFECTS ON ALABAMA: The system will have little if any impact on Alabama weather except for a continued high rip current threat along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, through Wednesday at least. As the system rounds the subtropical ridge and starts through the Ohio Valley, we will see elevated shower/storm chances again by late Thursday into Friday and Saturday.

HEAVY RAINS TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA: It appears that areas from the Texas Coast up through eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and even in western Pennsylvania could pick up over 5 inches of rain in the next seven days. The NWS Weather Prediction Center (the old Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) are calling for a max of 8.6 inches near Fort Smith Arkansas this week. This could produce severe flooding in these areas.

It will also help alleviate dryness in the Ohio Valley though as we continue on our campaign to stamp out drought in the eastern U.S. New England might even get a little help.

Category: Tropical