Warmer Before Another Arctic Shot

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The warmer weather of yesterday and forecast for the next several days is being overshadowed by the attention being given to the potential winter weather event come Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Yesterday was a beautiful day with much of Central Alabama reaching the lower 60s. We won’t get quite that warm today with more clouds, but afternoon highs in the 50s will still feel good. There will be a few showers around though most folks will probably stay dry. The warmer weather is thanks to a southwesterly flow aloft which has raised heights over the Southeast US. But that southwesterly flow will also bring moisture with the warming, so the next several days will include chances for showers and rain.

As the trough develops over the southern Rockies, we’ll continue with a moisture laden southwesterly flow. A strong short wave coming through the northern US on Tuesday and Wednesday will generate a surface low over the Central Plains that will move quickly into eastern Canada and drag a cold front through the Southeastern US on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will see temperature fall during the day as Arctic air once again invades the Southeast US. And this is where the forecast gets a bit dicey. The GFS has been consistent with developing a sizable band of winter precipitation behind the front beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday morning. This is not the same scenario we saw last week with the epic snow event, and usually these kind of situations don’t result in major precipitation amounts, the problem of the cold air arriving as the moisture departs. But with freezing rain and sleet, it does not take much precipitation to create a real mess.

However, in this situation the cold air is forecast to come in quick and catch up with moisture, so the GFS is painting a rather broad band of wintry precipitation. The most likely type of precipitation will be freezing rain and sleet which can quickly impact travel. The most likely area to be impacted is along the I-20 corridor and north of that. There is no reason to panic just yet, but everyone should continue to monitor the forecast since we are still three to four days out, and we all know that the models can change their solutions.

Thursday is expected to be a raw day with morning lows into the 20s and afternoon highs in the 30s. But it is March which means that the cold snap should not last a long time and by Friday and Saturday we should be recovering with highs well into the 50s. A low latitude short wave late Saturday and into Sunday promises to bring another round of wet weather to areas along the Gulf Coast.

And looking out into voodoo country, the pattern remains active with a strong trough around the 12th and another cold shot around the 16th. After the cold February we had, we just can’t catch a break on an extended warm period.

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I’m filling in for Meaghan Thomas on ABC 3340 this weekend, so be sure to catch the latest forecast at 5 and 10 pm this evening. James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning, and there will be notes here as we continue to watch how this next situation unfolds. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather