Rain to Transition to Snow Soon

AREAS AFFECTED…SW AR…NRN MS…NW/N-CNTRL AL

CONCERNING…HEAVY SNOW

SUMMARY…AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM SW AR EWD INTO N-CNTRL AL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS TRANSITION…SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION…CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SE AR AND FAR NE LA IS SNOW WHILE PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS
FARTHER E IS STILL RAIN — I.E. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS ROUGHLY THE MS
RIVER. THIS RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AS THE
MID-LEVELS COOL IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL TX. ADDITIONALLY…AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EWD…THE SYSTEM WILL TREND TOWARDS A MORE NEUTRAL OR POSSIBLY
A SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT. RESULTANT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW — SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER
HOUR — ONCE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS. BEST ESTIMATES PLACE
THIS TRANSITION LINE OVER CNTRL MS BY 19Z AND NW AL BY 21Z. GIVEN
THE SENSITIVITY OF PRECIP TYPE CHANGES TO SMALL TEMPERATURE
CHANGES…A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS PROBABLE BEFORE A TRUE
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Winter Weather