From Ugly to Messy

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Unfortunately, even though we have moved closer to the event, the picture has gotten fuzzier instead of clearer. Unlike the model runs yesterday, the GFS has trended further north with the surface low and that has resulted in the atmosphere being forecast warmer than what we were seeing yesterday. It still looks like a wintry mix for the Tennessee Valley counties as well as the northern tier of Central Alabama including Marion, Winston, Cullman, Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee counties with freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely, but for the Interstate 20 corridor from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston, we could experience only a brief wintry mix with the start of precipitation Monday morning then becoming just a cold rain before ending Tuesday morning. There is still a good possibility the precipitation will change briefly over to snow early Tuesday morning as the precipitation comes to an end.

For snow lovers, this is a big blow. But the potential for icing that we saw yesterday was not something any of us want to happen. I will caution everyone who reads this that we still need to be vigilant because the I-20 corridor will be on the raw edge of the winter weather. If the computer guidance is too far north by just a few miles or if the models are underestimating the amount of dynamic cooling we see, the situation could change drastically. So it remains somewhat uncertain and definitely a “stay tuned” situation as we watch the actual weather and less of the model guidance.

While we have trended warmer, it is by no means warm! We stay fairly cold all week with the long wave trough positioned over the eastern US so temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be well below 30-year averages for February with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and into the 40s Thursday. The upper air pattern flattens a little on Friday and Saturday, allowing us to warm into the 50s. However, the GFS is showing another shot of precipitation starting early Friday morning which could begin as a wintry mix before changing over to just a cold rain.

The GFS maintains a cold look to the pattern through the end of February, but just as we saw yesterday, a closed low coming across Texas around March 1st could produce a significant severe weather event for the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeast US.

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With the situation remaining as fuzzy as it is, please take the winter weather threat seriously and stay informed by checking back with the Blog for the latest developments and updates on this weather situation. James Spann will continue to have notes here and will have the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather