Beautiful Followed by Ugly

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It would appear that Central Alabama will be able to enjoy a lovely day as we see plenty of sunshine and temperatures recovering nicely with highs well into the 50s and some spots possibly reaching 60 to 62 degrees. But then the overall scene turns rather ugly for us. Much colder air blows in here again on Sunday with highs only in the upper 30s. The moisture begins to arrive very early Monday morning so precipitation is likely to begin as a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. With precipitation beginning in the early morning hours, I expect to see it severely impact travel Monday morning. The wintry mix of precipitation is likely to continue off and one for much of the day Monday as the surface low develops on the Central Gulf Coast. This should bring a change over in the precipitation to a cold rain by Monday evening and into the early morning of Tuesday.

Because of this expected timing of the winter weather, the National Weather Service has issued a winter weather watch for the northern half of Alabama. Please keep in mind that there is still a good deal of uncertainty in this developing situation. We’re dealing with a surface low that has yet to form, and as always, the track of that low will be a determining factor in who gets what and how much of any winter precipitation. But the potential is there for a high impact winter weather event.

The surface low will move to the South Carolina coast by midday Tuesday which will usher in cold air on the backside of the low and this will bring a changeover in the precipitation from rain to snow during the day, probably late morning and afternoon, for Central Alabama. Typically these kinds of changeover events do not result in heavy snow amounts, but there is a good deal of moisture with this system, so more than a dusting is possible.

The surface low bombs out over the Atlantic as it moves northeast by New England producing yet another major winter weather event for that area. For us, we stay in the cold as the upper air pattern remains fixed with a deep trough over the eastern half of the country.

And as if that is not enough, the GFS is suggesting another round of winter weather for us next Friday into Saturday. But this is verging on voodoo country, so we’ll spend our energy trying to figure out what will be happening with the first two winter weather events from Monday into Wednesday.

The longer range GFS suggest the pattern remains pretty cold out to the first of March when it is suggesting a strong closed low coming out of the southern Rockies, a pattern which if it verifies would produce a healthy round of severe weather for the Southeast US. So stay tuned!!

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I don’t think the weather situation can get any tougher than the one we’re facing. I strongly urge everyone to prepare today while we have time. If the icing develops as it looks like it will, travel will be severely impacted and power outages in the middle of cold weather could occur. Be sure to have an alternative heat source if possible, but be especially careful with any open flames or the use of generators which can create dangerous carbon monoxide events. Stay tuned to the blog for additional updates as we work diligently to bring you the best possible weather information. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather