Unsettled Weather Through Tuesday

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October of 2014 is not living up to the typical characteristics of an October as the weather pattern remains quite unsettled for the next several days. Radar this morning showed showers across the northern third of Alabama along a stationary frontal boundary. Showers will be ending temporarily from the west this morning before additional showers affect us this afternoon.

For those heading to football games, rain gear is probably a good idea for the games. Auburn takes on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30 pm kickoff). The sky will be mostly cloudy with a kickoff temperature near 80 degrees; there is a good chance of showers or thunderstorms during the game. Temperatures will fall into the lower 70s by the final whistle.

Alabama is on the road as they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00 pm kickoff). Showers and storms are possible. The temperature will be in the upper 50s all day and will drop into the lower 50s by the fourth quarter.

UAB Blazers host North Texas (2:30 pm kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible, and temperatures will fall from near 82 degrees at kickoff to around 74 by the fourth quarter.

The unsettled weather continues into Sunday though it looks like showers will be somewhat less numerous than today. By Monday a very dynamic weather system aloft is forecast to bring a deep trough along with a closed low across the Central Plains with a large area of potentially severe weather from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into Ohio and Indiana. CAPE values are forecast to be into the 1000-2000 j/kg range and shear values will also be sufficient for the possibility of tornadoes. It does look like the system will produce a squall line that will move through Central Alabama late Monday and early Tuesday with damaging wind likely.

The upper low and trough will move by quickly on Tuesday so look for rapid clearing and much cooler temperatures by Wednesday morning with readings down into the 40s. Wednesday should be a great day with highs into the lower 70s.

The main westerlies stay north of us through the end of the week and into next weekend so we should have dry weather with seasonal temperatures – lows in the 50s and highs in the middle and upper 70s.

Subtropical storm Fay is churning in the Atlantic and not expected to affect the US. Bermuda is under a tropical storm warning as the storm passes just southeast of the island. Two other areas of disturbed weather were noted in the South Atlantic but neither is likely to become a storm in the next couple of days. The disturbance just east of the Leeward Islands is forecast to move into an area more conducive for development early next week. Forecasts indicate that the system should recurve east of the Bahamas.

Looking briefly into voodoo country, the weather stays unsettled with yet another deep trough forecast over the eastern third of the country around the 20th and 21st. And by the end of the month, the GFS suggests a closed low near the Four Corners area which could keep the Southeast in a wet pattern.

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I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Check back here for later updates on the weather situation. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather